Widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses will dissipate in northern regions of Australia, as will exceptional deficits in several regions of the continent. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in isolated regions of Western Australia and Northern Territory.
Exceptional deficits will remain widespread in several areas of the Canadian Shield and Atlantic regions. Exceptional surplus is anticipated in much of the Arctic Region.
Widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur in the southwest, northern, and northeastern states. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain in Florida, as well as in most noncontiguous states.
extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central and south-central regions of India. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in eastern regions of the country, and in some areas of Nepal and Bangladesh. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates persistent, widespread water surpluses in the Plains States and Upper Midwest with exceptional anomalies in the Dakotas and central Nebraska. Intense deficits will persist in central Colorado and the Salmon River Mountains in Idaho, and deficits will emerge in eastern Texas. Moderate surpluses are forecast for several states in U.S. Southeast.
Through December, widespread water surpluses of varying intensity will persist in the Plains States and the Upper Midwest, forming a column from North Dakota through northern Oklahoma. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in the Dakotas. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast from the Ohio River Valley to the Atlantic and south to the Gulf, but anomalies will be intense in West Virginia and states to the east. Intense deficits are also forecast for central and southeastern Colorado.
The near-term forecast through January indicates several striking changes from the prior three months: a transition in the Gulf Coast from water surplus to deficit, a broad path of deficits in the South Atlantic States, and surpluses from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio River Valley into the Northeast. In the spring normal water conditions should return to the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast, surpluses will continue to emerge in the Upper Mississippi, and deficits will moderate in the Lower Mississippi, Texas, and the South Atlantic States.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2017 through July 2018 include: Amapá, Amazonas, and Maranhão (Brazil); Madhya Pradesh and Haryana (India); Cambodia; Fujian and Inner Mongolia (China); Mongolia; Papua New Guinea; and, South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surpluses include: Bangladesh; Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur (India), western Myanmar; the Yangtze River (China); Poland; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) issued 8 November 2017.
The outlook for the United States indicates widespread exceptional water deficits throughout the Northeast from July through September. Deficits of varying severity are also forecast for parts of the Midwest and Upper Midwest, the Pacific Northwest, and California. Widespread water surpluses are expected in eastern Texas and surpluses are also forecast in West Virginia and Nebraska. After September deficits will diminish with the exception of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses in Texas will diminish. Widespread surpluses are forecast to emerge in Wisconsin and across the Mississippi River into Minnesota.
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