Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions.
Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit.
Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus.
Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
The forecast through December indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in the Northern European Plain reaching across the Urals through the Ob River Basin. Intense deficits are expected around the Gulf of Ob and in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei Watershed. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and along Turkmenistan’s southern border where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional.
The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses in the Ob River Basin of Russia will shrink and moderate, and intense deficits will emerge in the Tom River Basin’s southern reaches. Intense deficits will also emerge in the Yenisei River Basin. Severe deficits are forecast for western Kazakhstan, and eastern Uzbekistan’s Fergana Valley. Surpluses are expected in eastern Kyrgyzstan and southern Turkmenistan.
In Central Asia, water deficits will increase and intensify in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan and extreme deficits will persist in central Kyrgyzstan. Surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan and south of Lake Balkhash. In Russia, deficits will moderate in the Caucasus and North Caucasus. Severe deficits will increase along the Ural River around Orenburg. Surpluses are forecast along the Ob, Irtysh, and Ishim Rivers and the Upper Ob and Tom River Basins. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the Northern European Plain.
Water surpluses will shrink in European Russia, transitioning to both deficit and surplus the Northern European Plain. Widespread deficits along the Pechora Sea through Yamal Peninsula and into the Central Siberian Plateau will retreat considerably. Surpluses in the Upper Ob and Tom River regions will diminish but remain widespread. Deficits will increase in the Bolshoy Yugan River watershed in the Middle Ob. Surpluses will persist in northern Kazakhstan, and deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, central Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
The forecast through June indicates that water surplus will shrink in European Russia, persist in the Tom River watershed, and transition to deficit in the Ob River watershed. Deficits will emerge surrounding Orenburg on the Ural River, and between the Lower Tunguska and the Angara Rivers in the Yenisei watershed. In Kazakhstan, surpluses will emerge and persist in the north, but diminish elsewhere; deficits will emerge in the west, which will be extreme on the Ural River. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
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