Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions.
Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit.
Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus.
Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
The May Outlook includes a forecast of exceptional warm anomalies in a number of places including northern Alaska; the State of São Paulo, Brazil and through the Andes from Colombia through northern Chile; and, around the Gulf of Guinea in Africa. Central Tanzania is expected to be much wetter than normal. Widespread, moderate to severe wet anomalies are forecast in a broad path in the U.S. from Michigan through Louisiana.
The forecast through May indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink and downgrade significantly, though intense deficits are forecast for eastern Minas Gerais, Espíritu Santo, and São Paulo. Surpluses will emerge in northeastern states and will moderate but increase in the south. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Suriname and French Guiana, and deficits of varying intensity for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and Peru, Chile, eastern Bolivia, and Argentina. Surpluses will shrink in northern Bolivia, downgrade in central Paraguay, and moderate in northeastern Argentina and Uruguay.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to diminish considerably over the next three months except in the western Amazon Basin in Brazil and Acre, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, and Tocantins. Deficits are also expected across Brazil’s Northeast region. Elsewhere on the continent, intense deficits are expected in western Bolivia and the Gulf of Corcovado, Chile. Areas of surpluses include central Colombia; Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; and La Pampa Province, Argentina. After February widespread surpluses will emerge in the northern Amazon Basin and Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname.
The near-term forecast indicates that widespread water deficits will persist, though moderate, in Brazil. However, intense deficits are forecast for: Brazil’s far north into Suriname and French Guiana; Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte; north-central and southern Venezuela; Cochabamba, Bolivia; northern Chile; and Tierra del Fuego. Surpluses will persist in La Pampa and Buenos Aires Provinces, Argentina, and will emerge in Uruguay. After November deficits will retreat to eastern Brazil and surpluses will emerge in the northern Amazon Basin.
The outlook for June 2016 shows a dominant pattern of many severe to exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures - particularly in Brazil, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and Indonesia - along with a few pockets cooler than normal. Exceptional wet anomalies are forecast for portions of Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. Severe to extreme wet anomalies are forecast for portions of Texas, Mexico, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. Dry anomalies are forecast for portions of Uruguay, Brazil, Spain, Ethiopia, and India.
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