Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2016 through November 2017 include: Arkansas, Quebec, Brazil, Finland, Denmark, Libya, Niger, Gabon, Madagascar, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, northern Russia, Inner Mongolia, Thailand, western Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Australia. Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho, Central California, southwestern Zambia, the Okavango Delta in Botswana, northeastern Afghanistan, and between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers in Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 March 2017.
Africa: Exceptional water deficits recede but widespread deficits persist
The extent of exceptional deficits across the continent will diminish through April, but moderate to extreme deficits will persist across northern Africa and across Africa’s mid-section from Gabon to southern Somalia. Deficits will diminish considerably in Madagascar though persist in the south. Surpluses are forecast in the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, and western Mozambique. The forecast for May through July indicates a downgrade in the intensity of deficits in the southern Sahel and an increase in the intensity of deficits across northern Africa where extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in eastern Algeria, northern Niger, Libya, Egypt, and northern Sudan.