The forecast through November indicates extreme to exceptional water deficits in the north from southeastern Algeria to the Red Sea, and deficits nearly as intense for western Ethiopia, the Atbara River, the Blue and White Nile Rivers, and the intersection of Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan. Deficits may be severe on the Kafue River in Zambia. Scattered surpluses are forecast around West Africa and intense surpluses in Tanzania.
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List September 2018
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2018 through May 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and southern India. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Heilongjiang, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 September 2018.
Africa: Water deficits to intensify in W Ethiopia, Zambia, & Botswana
Exceptional water deficits will shrink and downgrade across North Africa and along the Red Sea but deficits will remain widespread and intense. Intense deficits are also forecast for western Ethiopia, southern Gabon, northwestern Botswana, central Zambia, and western Madagascar. Exceptional surpluses will persist in East Africa; extreme surpluses are forecast for the conjoined borders of Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Republic of the Congo; and surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast for westernmost Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Africa: Water surpluses persist in Tanzania & Kenya
Exceptional water deficits in North Africa will diminish but persist, and severe deficits are forecast in Gabon and in Nigeria south of the Benue River. Deficits will also persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Moderate to exceptional deficits will emerge in central Botswana. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, and northern Uganda, but diminish somewhat in northern Madagascar. Surpluses east of Kinshasa in Democratic Republic of the Congo are forecast to increase in both extent and intensity, becoming severe.
Africa: Intense water surpluses to persist in Tanzania & Kenya
The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water deficits across northern Africa will diminish, but intense deficits will persist in Libya, Niger, Egypt, and Sudan. Deficits will downgrade in Gabon and southern DRC but remain severe. Deficits will persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Relatively mild deficits are forecast for southern Africa. Intense surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, northern Uganda, and northern Madagascar.