Water deficits of varying severity are forecast throughout much of Mexico from November through January, with pockets of exceptional deficit in Oaxaca. Deficits will persist in Guatemala, and surpluses are forecast in eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. From February through April deficits in across northern Mexico will diminish, but moderate to exceptional deficits will persist in the southern states of Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and parts of the Yucatán. Surpluses will persist in parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.
Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook for October 2016
The October Outlook indicates a large expanse of exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures forecast from Quebec into Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, and coastal West Africa, along with widespread significant warm anomalies in Western Europe, Russia, and Southeast Asia. Exceptional dry anomalies are forecast for Guinea-Bissau and western Guinea. Areas with a forecast of wet anomalies include Colombia, Peru, Gabon, Java, and northern Australia.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast in southern Mexico
Deficits on the Baja Peninsula are forecast through October, with some abatement in August. Deficits will continue to emerge in southern Mexico through April. Surpluses are expected in northeastern Sonora, Mexico, northern Costa Rica, and eastern Panama through October. Deficits are forecast to emerge in Haiti. From November on moderate deficits will continue to emerge in southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.
Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook for August 2016
The August forecast indicates widespread severe to exceptional warm anomalies across vast stretches of northern South America, North Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Southeast Asia, with anomalies of lesser severity in many other parts of the world. Scattered precipitation anomalies include dry anomalies in Nepal and in Amapá, Brazil. Wet anomalies are predicted for the island of New Guinea, eastern Kyrgyzstan, China's Taklamakan Desert, Arizona, and Sonora.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast in Veracruz and Guatemala
Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula through September with greatest extent and severity in July. Deficits are forecast in southern Mexico during this period and are expected to be of exceptional severity along the southern Gulf of Mexico in Veracruz, Tabasco, and Oaxaca. Deficits are also forecast in Guatemala and El Salvador, Jamaica and Haiti, and after September may emerge in Belize, Honduras, western Nicaragua and eastern Panama.