Widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses will dissipate in northern regions of Australia, as will exceptional deficits in several regions of the continent. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in isolated regions of Western Australia and Northern Territory.
Exceptional deficits will remain widespread in several areas of the Canadian Shield and Atlantic regions. Exceptional surplus is anticipated in much of the Arctic Region.
Widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur in the southwest, northern, and northeastern states. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain in Florida, as well as in most noncontiguous states.
extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central and south-central regions of India. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in eastern regions of the country, and in some areas of Nepal and Bangladesh. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Through January 2020 exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Northern European Plain in Russia, the Ob River region, and the Upper Reaches of the Volga Watershed. Intense deficits will persist north and southeast of Lake Baikal. Surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, eastern Uzbekistan, and along Turkmenistan’s southern border.
The forecast through March indicates intense water surpluses in the Ob and Yenisei River Basins in Russia. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for the Ural River Watershed in northwestern Kazakhstan and across the border into Russia, and in the Upper Volga River Basin and parts of Trans Volga. Primarily moderate surpluses are expected along the Ertis (Irtysh), Esil, and Ile Rivers in Kazakhstan, and the Zarafshon River in eastern Uzbekistan. Severe deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and surpluses in the west.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2018 through August 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Chile, Finland, Albania, northern Africa, India, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas and Pennsylvania (US), Paraguay, western Tanzania, Tomsk and Kemerovo (Russia), and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 December 2018.
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