Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus will persist in the Northern European Plain

18 November 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2020 indicates a vast expanse of intense water surplus in Russia’s Vychegda Lowland west of the Urals with exceptional surpluses in the Pechora River Watershed. Surpluses will reach past the Ob River Watershed on the other side of the Urals into the Western Siberian Plain, with exceptional surpluses in the Upper Reaches of the Nadym and Pur Rivers.

ISciences_Central_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_12mo_panel.png

Moderate surpluses are forecast along the Lower Volga River and intense surpluses in the Upper Volga Basin. Exceptional deficits are forecast along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei River Watershed, and north of Lake Baikal.

Surpluses are forecast in Kazakhstan’s Kostanay Region in the north and in scattered small pockets across the country, and in eastern Kyrgyzstan and the Naryn River through the Fergana Valley. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in eastern Turkmenistan and conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast along the country’s southern border.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2020 indicates that surpluses will increase and intensify in the Northern European Plain in Russia with exceptional anomalies in the Vychegda Lowland. Surpluses of varying intensity will persist in the Ob River Basin and will be exceptional in the Lower and Middle Ob regions and into the Upper Reaches of the Nadym and Pur Rivers. In the Volga River region, surpluses will be severe on the Lower Volga, exceptional north of Volgograd, severe around the Kuybyshev Reservoir between Samara and Kazan, and extreme to exceptional in the Upper Reaches of the Volga Watershed.

ISciences_Central_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_3mo_panel.png

Intense deficits will persist on the central shores of the Gulf of Ob and north of Lake Baikal and will increase southeast of Baikal. Deficits will remain widespread in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region of the Yenisei Watershed though the extent of exceptional deficits will shrink somewhat.

In Kazakhstan, surpluses will persist in pockets of the north, east, and in the south along the Ile River; moderate deficits will increase in Aktobe Region in the northwest; and severe deficits will increase in the Ural River area of the northwest, intensifying across the border into Russia. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, eastern Uzbekistan, and in a wide band along Turkmenistan’s southern border where surpluses will be exceptional.

From February through April 2020, intense, widespread surpluses in the Northern European Plain in Russia will persist but downgrade. Surpluses will remain exceptional in the Middle Ob River region. Intense deficits are forecast to persist along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region, and north of Lake Baikal, though deficits around Baikal will shrink. Intense surpluses will persist in Kazakhstan’s Kostanay Region and in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2020 – indicates moderate to severe surpluses across the Northern European Plain and into the Western Siberian Plain, moderate to severe deficits along the central coasts of the Gulf of Ob, and relatively normal conditions in Central Asia, with surpluses in northern Kazakhstan and eastern Kyrgyzstan.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Experts warn that Central Asia’s fertile Ferghana Valley, home to 14 million people, is just one heavy rainfall away from mass radioactive waste poisoning from neglected uranium ore dumps. The European Commission and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development are attempting to raise 30 million euros (USD $33 million) to reinforce or relocate dumps along the Mailuu-Suu River flowing into the Syr Darya River and Ferghana Valley. In 1958, torrential rainfall and an earthquake pushed 2 million cubic metres of contaminated waste into the region, with a subsequent increase in cancer rates, Down’s Syndrome, and thyroid disease.

Heavy rain and snowfall in northwestern European Russia caused flooding in Novgorod and Vologda Oblasts. A state of emergency was declared for Novgorod as the Volkhov River overflowed.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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