Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions.
Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit.
Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus.
Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that intense water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will disappear leaving mild deficits or nearly normal conditions. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Indonesia, transitioning to deficits in Borneo, Sumatra, and Java. Deficits will downgrade in Papua New Guinea but will be severe.
The forecast indicates a transition away from water surplus to deficit. Deficits are forecast for mainland Southeast Asia, Peninsular Malaysia, northern Sumatra, and Luzon and Mindanao in the Philippines; deficits may be exceptional in Peninsular Malaysia. Exceptional deficits in Cambodia will shrink considerably but persist in a pocket northeast of Tonlé Sap. Severe deficits are forecast for Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region. Surpluses are forecast for central Philippines. After June, anomalies in the region will downgrade though severe deficits will continue in Peninsular Malaysia.
Though a significant retreat of exceptional water surplus in the region is forecast through October, exceptional surpluses remain in the forecast for: western Myanmar; eastern Thailand into southern Laos; and, southeastern Sulawesi and Sumbawa and Flores Islands in Indonesia. Exceptional deficits are forecast for a large block of western Cambodia, and deficits of varying severity are forecast for the Mekong Delta, southern Thailand, Singapore, Malaysian Borneo, southern Sumatra, and pockets in central Papua New Guinea. After October, near-normal conditions are expected in many parts of the region and deficits in western Cambodia will moderate.
The July through September forecast shows the near absence of widespread surpluses observed in prior months. However, exceptional surpluses are forecast for western Myanmar; northern Prachuap Khiri Khan Province, Thailand; the extreme southeastern region of Sulawesi; and Flores Island in Indonesia. Severe to exceptional deficits are indicated in much of Cambodia, in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, and in central Papua New Guinea. In the October-December timeframe moderate deficits are indicated in many parts of the region, and thereafter deficits in Southeast Asia may intensity.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2017 through March 2018 include: Brazil, Europe, northern Africa, Gabon, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Cambodia, South Korea, Tasmania, and Mongolia. Water surpluses are forecast for: the US Gulf Coast and Idaho, La Pampa (Argentina), western European Russia, eastern Romania, southeastern Tanzania, the Volga River Basin, between the Upper Ob and the Tom Rivers (Russia), Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, and the southern Yangtze River Basin. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 10 July 2017.
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