ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST MAY 2020

15 May 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in February 2020 and running through January 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List May 15, 2020 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses will shrink considerably but anomalies will persist in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Deficits will increase in the West, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest, but will generally spare southern California.

Canada: The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water deficits in northern Quebec will shrink though vast areas will persist. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the Gatineau River Watershed north of Ottawa. Deficits will increase in Southern Ontario but a pocket of moderate surplus will persist west of Toronto. Surpluses will increase in southeastern British Columbia and will be exceptional.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through July indicates that water anomalies will shrink considerably throughout the region but intense deficits will persist in Chihuahua, Mexico and surpluses will persist in Sonora. Surpluses are also forecast in pockets of Central America.

South America: The forecast through July indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade, particularly in the north. However, intense deficits are expected in Brazil, French Guiana, Suriname, and Peru. Surpluses will increase in pockets of eastern Brazil.

Europe: The forecast through July indicates that exceptional water deficits will increase in Finland, the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine, and deficits of varying intensity will increase in Eastern Europe, many pockets of Central Europe, Italy, and the northern Balkans. Surpluses will shrink considerably in the U.K.

Africa: The forecast through July indicates water deficits in North Africa with exceptional deficits emerging in eastern regions. Deficits will retreat from the Horn of Africa. Surpluses will remain widespread in East Africa and will increase in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and southern Sudan.

Middle East: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses in the region will shrink overall, but persist in Syria, northern Iraq, and many regions in Iran. Exceptional deficits will emerge in eastern United Arab Emirates.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses in the Northern European Plain of Russia will shrink and downgrade. Intense surpluses are forecast for northern Kazakhstan and the Turkmen-Iran border. Moderate deficits are expected in the northern Caspian Basin.

South Asia: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses will shrink considerably overall but remain widespread and intense in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Areas of surplus in India include the Far North, central Rajasthan, and Karnataka. Deficits will intensify in India’s Far Northeast and emerge in coastal Maharashtra.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through July indicates that anomalies will shrink and downgrade in Southeast Asia, leaving surpluses in northern and central Vietnam. Surpluses are also forecast for many parts of Indonesia and will be intense in southwestern Sumatra and Flores Island.

East Asia: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses will retreat from the Yangtze River Basin, shrink in Northeast China and the Pearl River Basin, but persist along the Lower Yellow River and in the upper watershed. Exceptional deficits in southern Yunnan will disappear.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through July indicates that widespread water surpluses reaching exceptional intensity will persist in the Murray-Darling Basin and south to Melbourne. Intense deficits will persist in northern New Zealand and emerge in pockets of northern Australia.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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