Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of ...

Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of surpluses persist throughout SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit. 

South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, Bangladesh
Middle East
ISciences staff
Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue ...

Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus. 

Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue in S countries
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near Lake Baikal
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain. 

Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Tokyo

East Asia: Intense water deficits forecast for Shandong & Mongolia

East Asia: Intense water deficits forecast for Shandong & Mongolia

The near-term forecast indicates a vast stretch of exceptional water deficit from Xinjiang through southern Mongolia and eastern Inner Mongolia, and in Shandong, China.  Severe to extreme deficits will continue to emerge in South Korea, and the extent of deficits in Fujian and Guangdong will increase somewhat. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in the Han River (Hanjiang) watersheds and the eastern stretch of the Ordos Loop of the Yellow (Huang) River. After March exceptional deficits and surpluses will retreat but some areas of intense anomalies will persist.

East Asia: Water surpluses forecast to persist in Shanghai, Jiangsu; deficits near Seoul

East Asia: Water surpluses forecast to persist in Shanghai, Jiangsu; deficits near Seoul

Water deficits are forecast to diminish in severity November through January in Northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, and the Shandong Peninsula, but will continue to emerge on Liaodong Peninsula, Guizhou, northeast Guangxi, and eastern Yunnan. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Fujian, but from February through April conditions in Fujian will transition to near-normal. Moderate deficits will emerge in many parts of North Korea. 

East Asia: Surpluses on Yellow and Yangtze Rivers to diminish, surpluses to persist in Zhejiang & Fujian

East Asia: Surpluses on Yellow and Yangtze Rivers to diminish, surpluses to persist in Zhejiang & Fujian

From October through December the severity of deficits on the Korean Peninsula will persist while that of the Shandong Peninsula is expected to diminish. The extent of exceptional deficits in Yunnan and Guangxi is forecast to shrink somewhat, but deficits will emerge from that region leading north. Surpluses on the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers will diminish, but surpluses will continue to emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, and southern Taiwan. Widespread surpluses that have dominated China recently are notably absent in the January through March forecast. 

East Asia: Water surpluses forecast to diminish in Yangtze Basin, increase in Pearl

East Asia: Water surpluses forecast to diminish in Yangtze Basin, increase in Pearl

Water surpluses in the Yangtze Basin are forecast to diminish in extent from September through November, while to the south surpluses in the Pearl River basin will increase. Water deficits are expected to increase from the Shandong Peninsula westward to the Tibetan Plateau, and deficits are also forecast for Shanghai. Elsewhere in the region deficits are forecast in Taiwan and South Korea during this period; surpluses are forecast for Hokkaido, Japan. From December through February surpluses along the Yellow, Yangtze, and Pearl Rivers will moderate.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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