Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses continue in Maritime SE Asia

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses continue in Maritime SE Asia

25 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that most exceptional surpluses in Maritime Southeast Asia will downgrade in severity, becoming mostly severe to exceptional surpluses in Indonesia and the Philippines, with near-normal conditions occurring in most other regions. Deficits are expected in northern areas of Thailand and Laos. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Indonesia, in much of East Nusa Tenggara, as well as northern coastal regions of Sumatra’s Aceh province. 

  • The Philippines, widespread throughout much of the country. 

  • Papua, in regions of the Puncak, Merauke, and Sorong regencies. 

  • Southern coastal regions of Malaysia, near the town of Bandar Penawar, as well as the majority of Singapore. 

Severe to extreme deficits are expected in: 

  • Northern Laos, within the Vientiane Province. 

  • Northern Vietnam, appearing predominantly in the Yen Bai, Lai Chau, and Bac Kan regions. 

  • Northern Myanmar, along the country’s northern border. 

  • Indonesia, in central areas of the North Sumatra province. 

Transitional conditions are expected in:

  • Northern Vietnam, spreading from regions near the city of Ha Giang to the Gam River.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2025 indicates that some regions of Maritime Southeast Asia will experience severe to extreme surpluses, specifically in northern to central Philippines, East Nusa Tenggara, North Maluku, and the Sorong Regency in Papua. Further north, severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in northern Laos, particularly in the Luang Prabang, Sam Nuea, and Houaphanh provinces. These surpluses are also anticipated in regions along the northern border of Thailand and along the eastern and southern regions of Myanmar. Some pockets of exceptional deficit are anticipated in central and south-central Thailand, as well as northernmost areas of Myanmar. 

From May through July 2025, moderate to severe deficits are expected in much of central Indonesia, particularly in North Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sarawak, and Sulawesi. West-central areas of Malaysia will also experience moderate to severe deficits. Moderate to severe surpluses in the Philippines are expected to mostly resolve, but will linger in central regions of the country. 

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – moderate to severe deficits may expand in North Sumatra and in west-central Malaysia. Widespread severe surpluses may occur in Java. Most other areas of Southeast Asia may experience near-normal conditions with some abnormal anomalies.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On February 16th, over 100,000 residents in the Philippines’ Palawan and Oriental Mindoro provinces were affected by flooding. Local reports said a total of 107,329 residents in 116 villages were hit by floods, which resulted in six deaths and one missing persons report. Officials described several areas in Palawan as “calamity-hit” as relief efforts continue. 

A recent video showed five rescue officers being carried away by powerful floods while trying to evacuate trapped residents in South Sulawesi. The floods, which occurred on February 11th, submerged 14 districts in the Maros Regency, which left major roads inaccessible. All officers were rescued and sustained no serious injuries. 

Malaysia’s Johor province continues to grow as Southeast Asia’s fastest growing data center market, leaving some local businesses to compete for energy and water resources. The province is experiencing a surge in data capacity – an expansion catalysed by tech companies such as Microsoft and Alibaba. Investments surpassed $31 billion just in the last year, and Johor is projected to reach 1.6 gigawatts from nearly zero in 2019. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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