Central Asia & Russia: W, N, SE Russia to observe persisting deficits

Central Asia & Russia: W, N, SE Russia to observe persisting deficits

26 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in western, northern, and southeastern regions of Russia. Surpluses in Kazakhstan are expected to decrease in size but remain in small areas of the country. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Western Russia, in western areas of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and throughout much of westernmost areas of Western Siberia.  

  • Northern Russia, in northern areas of the Yalamo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and northern coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. 

  • Southeastern Russia, throughout regions of Buryatia east of Lake Baikal.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • North-central Kazakhstan, within the Akmola Region. 

  • Eastern Russia, in central areas of the Sakha Republic near the Lena River. 

  • East-central Russia, in pockets of northern Irkutsk Oblast, near the Katangsky District. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain throughout central Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, northern coastal Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, central Krasnoyask Krai, and throughout Buryatia. Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain in northern Irkutsk Oblast, eastern to east-central Krasnoyask Krai, and central Sakha Republic. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to continue in north-central and eastern regions of Kazakhstan. These surpluses continue east into southern Russia, primarily in the Altai Republic and Altai Krai. Transitional conditions are anticipated in northern portions of the Komi Republic. 

From May through July 2025, extreme to exceptional surpluses in central Russia are expected to mostly dissipate. Moderate to severe surplus is expected in pockets of central Krasnoyask Krai and north-central Sakha Republic. Northern coastal areas of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug will observe continuing severe to exceptional deficits, as will central areas of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, central Irkutsk Oblast, and central Buryatia. Transitional conditions are expected in north-central Irkutsk Oblast and in south-central Krasnoyark Krai. 

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – anticipates exceptional deficits to further downgrade in size across Russia. Some pockets of exceptional deficit will remain in northern coastal areas of Nenets Autonomous Okrug, northern coastal Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and areas east of Lake Baikal.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
According to local experts, regions of European Russia are facing unprecedented drought due to lack of snow cover. Roughly a quarter of the Volga basin has no snow, and the area is not expected to experience significant snowfall to offset the deficit. These dry conditions could potentially result in a severe drought affecting regions including Tula, Yaroslavl, Vladimir, and Volgograd. Siberia is also expected to be affected by the lack of moisture, as water from the Urals typically contributes to the region's moisture levels. 

Russian farmers reportedly received 4.5 billion rubles in 2024 for insurance payouts for climate-related crop losses. Seven types of natural disasters were recorded in the region, such as significant drought in the South and oversaturation in the Urals. 16.3 million hectares of agricultural land was insured, which led to the high amount of payment. Insurance payments for winter wheat totalled 1.8 billion rubles, corn 363 million, spring wheat 314 million, and sugar beet 279 million rubles. 

A recent report stated that bilateral trade between Russia and Ethiopia grew by almost 40% in the first ten months of 2024, with agriculture consisting 89% of all trades. At the inaugural Russia-Ethiopia Intergovernmental Commission meeting, officials discussed expansion of trade and cooperation between the two countries. Russia offered support to Ethiopia by means of providing drought mitigation technology and supplies of drought-resilient wheat. 

Similarly, Uzbekistan and Malaysia have established an alliance through agricultural trade agreements and technological collaboration. Representatives of Uzbekistan visited Malaysia to discuss increases of fruit and vegetable exports, specifically for melons, cherries, and apricots. Technological collaboration between the countries include “smart farming” technologies, including agricultural drones, seed exchanges, and research on salt and drought-tolerant crops to withstand Uzbekistan’s climate. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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