Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus to expand in Central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus to expand in Central America

25 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and central Mexico. Significant portions of Central America will observe severe to exceptional surpluses. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Honduras, widespread throughout the country, with the most intense anomalies occurring in easternmost regions and along its northern coast. 

  • Nicaragua, primarily in southeastern and southern regions, in areas east of Lake Nicaragua. 

  • Costa Rica, with the most intense surpluses occurring along the country’s northern border. 

  • Panama, throughout the country, with the most intense anomalies appearing in portions of the Soná District. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Northwestern Mexico, appearing in eastern Sonora and western Chihuahua, as well as throughout Baja California and northern Baja California Sur. 

  • Central Mexico, near the Reserva de la Biosfera Sierra Gorda. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will be widespread in western areas of Mexico, specifically in portions of Nayarit, Jalisco and Colima. Exceptional deficits are also expected in pockets across central and north-central Mexico. Transitional conditions are expected to arise in portions of Guerrero, western Oaxaca, and Michoacan. Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in areas of Puebla and central to eastern Oaxaca. Moderate surpluses will occur in southern Chiapas and the Yucatan Peninsula. Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in Central Guatemala, throughout Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. 

From May through July 2025, most intense anomalies in Mexico are expected to resolve. Western coastal regions of Jalisco, Colima, and Nayarit can expect moderate surpluses to occur. Moderate to severe surpluses will be present in regions along the northern and northeastern border of Guatemala, as well as in eastern Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Panama. Eastern Honduras can expect severe to extreme surpluses to continue. Northwestern regions of Mexico, specifically western coastal Sonora and Baja California Sur, can expect exceptional deficits to appear. 

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits will emerge in central and southeastern portions of Mexico. Exceptional deficits will remain present in northern Baja California Sur. Surpluses in Central America are expected to downgrade in size, but remain present in southeastern Nicaragua and central Panama.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The United States - Mexico border continues to face a growing water crisis as overuse, climate change, and pollution threaten water accessibility for millions of people on both sides. Rising temperatures and drought have reduced regional water supplies as demand increases from agriculture and population growth, adding strain to local bodies of water, such as the Colorado and Rio Grande rivers. These rivers are among the most stressed in the world, as flows shrink and contamination worsens.

Despite severe drought affecting the country’s agriculture sector, vegetable prices in Jamaica have decreased by up to 66% due to an increase in production. Agriculture Minister Floyd Green reported that 70% of vegetables saw cost reductions, including sweet peppers, lettuce, tomatoes, pak choi, and carrots. Though vegetable prices have lowered, prices for some fruits are still at risk of increasing due to drought, particularly melons and cantaloupes. With continued dry conditions expected, authorities are distributing water and implementing sustainable solutions to combat environmental challenges.

In early February, representatives of Human Rights Watch met with officials from Panama’s Ministry of Environment to draft a climate adaptation decree, which is expected to be implemented by the end of April. Last year, Panama’s previous administration began to create a national approach, but ultimately did not put one in place. At the meeting, Panamanian officials included plans to also consistently report on climate-displaced people in Panama, including indigenous communities such as the Gardi Sugdub and Ukupa in Guna Yala. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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