Middle East: Deficits persist in the Levant

25 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that most exceptional deficits in the Middle East will resolve, but will linger in some areas of Saudi Arabia, the Levant, Oman, and Iran. Surpluses of varying intensity will continue in western coastal Yemen and southwestern Saudi Arabia.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Southwestern Saudi Arabia, in eastern areas of the Ranyah Governorate.
United Arab Emirates, in western areas of the country, as well as throughout Qatar. Oman can expect exceptional deficits in the Al Wusta, Ash Sharqiyah, and Ad Dakhilliyah Governorate.
Iran, spanning most southwestern areas of the country, with the most intense anomalies occurring along the coast of the Persian Gulf. Exceptional deficits are also anticipated in pockets of the Sistan and Baluchestan Province, as well as northern coastal regions along the Caspian Sea. Further west, southeastern Iraq can anticipate severe to exceptional deficits in areas within the Dhi Qar Governorate.
Israel, widespread throughout the country, as well as the West Bank and Lebanon. Northern Jordan, western to northern Syria, and southeastern Turkey will also experience these deficits.

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in:

Yemen, along most areas of the country’s western coast.
Southwestern Saudi Arabia, in coastal regions near the city of Abha.

Transitional conditions will persist in:

Saudi Arabia, in central regions of the Aseer Province.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in much of the Levant, particularly in Israel, the West Bank, western and northern Syria, Lebanon, and southwestern to northern Syria. Regions along the northern border of Syria and southeastern border of Turkey will also experience severe to exceptional deficits. In northern Iraq, areas of the Nineveh Governorate can expect severe to extreme deficits to occur. Southwestern and northern coastal regions of Iran will observe severe to exceptional deficits, as well as isolated areas of the country’s East Azerbaijan Province. Central Oman will observe exceptional deficits throughout the Al Wusta Governorate. Moderate surpluses are expected to linger in remote areas of southwestern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen.

From May through July 2025, moderate surpluses will remain in southwestern Saudi Arabia, but mostly resolve in western coastal regions of Yemen. Exceptional deficits are expected to occur in eastern portions of Yemen, as well as some eastern coastal areas of Oman. Areas of the Ranyah Governorate in southwestern Arabia will observe an emergence of severe to exceptional deficit, as well as some portions of the Riyadh Province. Pockets of exceptional deficits will continue in many regions of Syria, Israel, and the West Bank. Southwestern coastal regions of Saudi Arabia along the Persian Gulf will observe exceptional deficits, as will areas along the country’s northern coast bordering the Caspian Sea. Pockets of exceptional deficits are also expected in Iran’s Kerman Province. Northeastern coastal regions of Turkey bordering the Red Sea will observe severe to extreme deficits.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – indicates that severe to extreme surpluses will emerge in western Yemen and southwestern Saudi Arabia. Exceptional deficits in south-central Saudi Arabia will expand in size. Further north, regions in Iraq in the Dhi Qar Governorate may observe exceptional deficits. Pockets of exceptional deficits are anticipated in central, eastern, and southeastern Iran. Severe deficits may continue in northeastern coastal Turkey.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As Afghanistan continues to experience drought, experts express concern over the country’s dwindling groundwater supplies. Due to Afghanistan’s lack of water storage infrastructure, regional precipitation instead flows into neighboring countries. To address this, the government plans to implement water management plans, such as building dams and water channels, as well as fund large-scale projects prioritizing increases in water storage. The government also detailed a five year plan to maximize water retention, and has drilled thousands of wells.

Israel is experiencing its driest winter in 100 years, as only 55% of the country’s average rainfall has been recorded as of early February. The Sea of Galilee and Jordan River have seen minimal water level increases, and many regions, including Jerusalem and the Negev, have received significantly less rain than usual. Despite the lack of rainfall, officials from the Water Authority stated that there will be no immediate shortage of water due to desalination practices and strategic water management.

Similarly, Lebanon is experiencing one of its worst droughts in history, as rainfall levels have nearly been halved compared to 2024. The lack of sufficient precipitation has caused depleted groundwater levels, local springs, and crop yields. Farmers have cited an increase in irrigation costs and pest infestations, as well as lower crop yields. The Litani River, a crucial water source for Lebanon’s agriculture and hydroelectricity generation, has significantly diminished, prompting Lebanon to launch its first-ever National Drought Management Plan.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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