South Asia: Surpluses continue in north-central, south-central India

South Asia: Surpluses continue in north-central, south-central India

24 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

 The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that most exceptional surpluses in India will resolve. Some surpluses will persist in north-central and south-central India. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • North-central India, in eastern Rajasthan, appearing in areas near the city of Jaipur. 

  • South-central India, in southeastern Karnataka and northern Tamil Nadu, specifically near the cities of Bengaluru and Vellore. These surpluses are also present in southern Tamil Nadu, near the city of Madurai. 

  • Pakistan, in regions near the city of Karachi.

  • Sri Lanka, widespread throughout the country. 

Moderate to severe deficits are expected in: 

  • Eastern India, in eastern portions of Meghalaya and in central to western portions of Assam.  

  • Northern India, in central regions of the state of Punjab, as well as eastern areas of Himachal Pradesh.  

  • Bhutan, appearing in much of the country. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2025 indicates widespread transitional conditions to span from western to eastern India, continuing east from Gujarat to West Bengal. Transitional conditions will also occur in isolated regions of southern and central Pakistan. Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in southern India, predominantly in the state of Karnataka. Further north, severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to occur in Punjab, near the city of Jaipur. The state of West Bengal is expected to observe widespread exceptional surpluses. Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in northern Pakistan, near the city of Islamabad. Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in southern Bhutan, as well as in eastern India, in the states of Meghalaya and Assam. 

From May through July 2025, severe surpluses are anticipated in pockets of southern India, with the most intense anomalies occurring in southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu. Sri Lanka is anticipated to experience widespread moderate surpluses. North-central areas of India, in the state of Punjab, should anticipate a mixture of transitional conditions and moderate surpluses. Western Bhutan will experience exceptional deficits, as well as areas of Pakistan’s Balochistan province. 

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – indicates that moderate surpluses will emerge in east-central India, while moderate to severe surpluses will occur in eastern coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in eastern Himachal Pradesh.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On February 19th, the bodies of five missing miners were recovered 44 days after a coal mine flooded in Assam, India. The initial incident occurred on January 6th, when water trapped nine miners in an illegal mine. The first four bodies were recovered within a week, while the search for the remaining miners continued for over a month. Authorities are now investigating illegal mining, which was banned in India in 2014 but continues in some regions.

The recently released Climate Risk Assessment for India detailed district-specific risks for regions across the country. The report states that 51 districts face very high flood risk, 118 fall under high flood risk, 91 districts have very high drought risk, and 188 are at high drought risk. Overall, 25% of India's districts are flood-prone, while 40% are drought-prone. Additionally, the International Panel for Climate Change suggests that every 1°C rise in global temperature is expected to notably affect India’s agriculture sector, reducing wheat yields by 6% and rice yields by 3%.

A recent assessment by Germanwatch found that Bangladesh faces nearly $3 billion in annual losses due to extreme weather events, affecting 6.3 million people each year. Over the past 30 years, global extreme weather events have caused 800,000 deaths and $4.2 trillion in economic losses. While Bangladesh ranks 31st among the most affected nations, it has significantly reduced cyclone-related deaths through effective climate adaptation.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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