Europe: Deficits to occur in E Europe

Europe: Deficits to occur in E Europe

19 December 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in August 2025 indicates that widespread severe to exceptional surpluses in western and central Europe will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions. Eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits of varying intensity. 

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southern Norway, in west-central regions of Innlandet County.

  • Northern Sweden, in western areas of Norbotton County. 

  • Northeastern Spain, in eastern coastal areas of the Castellón region. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Eastern Poland, widespread throughout the Masovia, Warmia-Marsuria, Subcarpathia, and Lublin regions. These deficits continue into areas along the border of southwestern Belarus and northwestern Ukraine.

  • Western Romania, in the Județul Caraș-Severin and Județul Bihor regions. 

  • Finland, in areas north of Lake Pielinen. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through February 2025 predicts that severe to exceptional deficits will occur in areas along the borders of eastern Poland, southwestern Belarus, and northwestern Ukraine. Southern Lithuania will also experience severe to extreme deficits, as well as the majority of southwestern Portugal and south-central Spain. Some exceptional deficits will also arise in southwestern Portugal. Severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in eastern Czechia, south-central Norway, and in eastern coastal regions of Spain in the Castellón province. 

From March through May 2025, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to persist in southern Norway. Some moderate surpluses will continue in northern Sweden and northern Finland. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to remain in regions along the borders of eastern Poland, southwestern Belarus, and northwestern Ukraine. Some severe deficits may arise in eastern Slovakia, eastern Hungary, and in west-central Ukraine. 

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2025 – anticipates that extreme to exceptional deficits will remain in areas along the borders of eastern Poland, southern Belarus, and northwestern Ukraine, as well as in regions north of Finland’s Lake Pielinen. Extreme deficits are expected in southern Spain in areas west of Gibraltar. Most other European countries may observe near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Over 220 deaths occurred in Europe this year due to catastrophic flooding, in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, and Spain. Experts stated that destruction from these floods could have been less severe if the region implemented nature-based flood resilience measures, such as floodable parks or green roofs that absorb and slow down large amounts of water. “Instead of fighting nature, we need to start working with it,” said Iñaki Alday, a representative of the Tulane School of Architecture in New Orleans. Experts anticipate extreme flooding to double in frequency across 40% of the planet by 2050.

Sicily continues to endure its worst drought in history, which has led to severe water rationing, depletion of reservoirs, and rising tensions over allocation of water resources. The drought threatens to depopulate smaller Sicilian towns which already face economic struggles. The Ancipa dam, a critical water source, is nearly depleted, with residents facing limited water access as locals receive discolored, undrinkable water once a week. Experts cite that decades of neglected infrastructure, reduced rainfall, and the absence of snow have compounded the crisis. 

One year later, flood victims in France are still struggling to recover from the destruction. In 2023, northern France’s Pas-de-Calais region was hit by record floods, which devastated local communities and infrastructure. Now, in the town of Blendecques, officials plan to demolish an entire neighbourhood and transform it into a stormwater basin to prevent future flooding. Residents stated that they are “among the first in France” to have been displaced by climate change.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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