Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus emerges throughout S Mexico, Central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus emerges throughout S Mexico, Central America

19 December 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in August 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surplus will affect several regions of southern Mexico and Central America. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and central areas of Mexico. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southern Mexico, in the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, as well as in areas south of Mexico City. 

  • Northern Guatemala, in the Melchor de Mencos region, continuing east the majority of Belize. 

  • Honduras, with the most intense anomalies appearing in northern coastal regions of the country, near the city of La Ceiba.

  • Nicaragua, Costa Rica, throughout both countries, as well as western and southern Panama. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Northwestern Mexico, in much of the state of Sonora, as well as western portions of Chihuahua. 

  • Central Mexico, in the state of San Luis Potosi. 

  • Baja California Sur, widespread throughout the region. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will expand in northern Honduras, western to southwestern Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. Extreme to exceptional surpluses will also endure in eastern Guerrero and Oaxaca. Exceptional deficits are expected to remain in eastern Sonora and continue south into southwestern and central Chihuahua, as well as northern Sinaloa. Exceptional deficits are also expected to linger in central to eastern San Luis Potosi. Transitional conditions are expected to arise in western Guerrero and near northern San Luis Potosi. 

From March through May 2025, severe surpluses are expected to span throughout much of Guerrero, Oaxaca, and the Yucatan Peninsula. These surpluses continue south into Belize and northeastern to southwestern Guatemala. Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected in most central areas of Honduras. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to cover western to southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Exceptional deficits will remain in north-central Sonora and southernmost areas of Baja California Sur, as well as along most of the country’s western coast bordering the North Pacific Ocean. 

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2025 – most of Mexico and Central America are expected to observe primarily near-normal conditions. Some pockets of exceptional deficits may appear in central to northern Baja California Sur, southern Baja California, northern Sonora, and eastern Chihuahua. Moderate to severe surplus may occur in coastal regions of Guerrero and Oaxaca.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Recent forecasts from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN) warn that severe drought in Mexico is expected to worsen in 2025. Northern and central regions are expected to be most at risk for worsening drought conditions, including the states of Chihuahua, Guanajuato, and San Luis Potosí. As forecasts suggest high temperatures and minimal rainfall, officials emphasize the need for water conservation and focus on resilience against climate change. 

As dengue fever cases rise across the Americas and the Caribbean, experts cite climate-related changes to mosquito habitats as factors for the recent outbreak. “This is linked directly to climatic events,” said PAHO director Jarbas Barbosa, referencing warmer temperatures, droughts and flooding. As of December 2024, up to 12.6 million potential cases have been documented this year, which is nearly triple last year's figures. 7,700 deaths related to dengue fever have been reported so far in 2024 – a 200% increase from 2023. 

Costa Rica continues to face destructive flooding in the midst of another cold front affecting the area. According to the National Meteorological Institute (IMN), a high-pressure system is intensifying winds across Central America and the Caribbean, which is worsening the already tumultuous weather conditions. As of December 3rd, the National Emergency Commission (CNE) has recorded 35 flooding emergencies across the nation. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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