Australia & New Zealand: Surplus continues in N Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus continues in N Australia

19 December 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in August 2025 indicates that moderate to severe surpluses will remain in northern areas of Australia.  

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in: 

  • Northern Territory, primarily in northern regions of the territory, as well as some southwestern areas near the city of Yulara. 

  • Queensland, throughout the Yorke Peninsula. 

  • Eastern coastal areas of New South Wales in the Northern Rivers region. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through February 2025 indicates that moderate surpluses will continue in northern and southwestern portions of Northern Territory, as well as throughout the Yorke Peninsula in Queensland. Moderate to severe surpluses will also continue in eastern coastal regions of New South Wales. Moderate deficits will continue in southwestern coastal regions of Victoria, as well as in northern and southern coastal regions of New Zealand’s North Island. 

From March through May 2025, moderate surpluses in most of the Northern Territory are expected to resolve, though some will remain present in western portions of the area, as well as in eastern regions of Western Australia. Southwestern regions of the Yorke Peninsula, near the town of Normanton, can expect moderate surpluses to linger. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue in eastern coastal regions of New South Wales and Victoria. 

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2025 – indicate that moderate surplus will continue in eastern Western Australia, western Northern Territory, southwestern portions of the Yorke Peninsula, and eastern coastal regions of Victoria. Most other areas of Australia and New Zealand will observe near-normal conditions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Queensland authorities recently released water from dams to offset the impact of persisting rain and potential flood risks. The risks were brought on by widespread rainfall occurring in southeastern Queensland, with rainfall measuring between 80 to 100 millimeters on December 17th. Two women were rescued from subsequent floodwaters and emergency services responded to 200 incidents. Seqwater, the state’s water authority, continues to manage dam levels, releasing water from key dams like Somerset and Wivenhoe, with 19 ungated dams spilling excess water. 

Eastern regions of Australia continue to face heavy storms and flash floods which caused significant damage and disruption to infrastructure and roadways. Brisbane and Sydney recently experienced heavy downpours, which submerged streets, flooded stores, and cut off access to roads. Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia, and Tasmania also reported their heaviest rainfalls in years. Emergency services responded to over 900 incidents in New South Wales and flood watches remain in place for 13 saturated catchment areas. 

In the 2024 State of the Climate report, Australian authorities highlighted problematic warming trends, as well as predictions of an increase in frequency of climate change-induced extreme weather events. Since 1910, Australia's average temperature has risen by 1.51 degrees Celsius, while sea surface temperatures increased by 1.08°C since 1900. These changes play a role in catalyzing extreme weather events occurring in Australia, including more intense short-term rainfall events.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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