Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in SE, NW, W Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in SE, NW, W Russia

26 November 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in July 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in southeastern, northwestern, and western Russia, while northeastern and southeastern Russia will observe severe to extreme surpluses. Regions of Kazakhstan can expect moderate to extreme surpluses in northern and southeastern regions of the country. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Northwestern Russia, in the northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and across the Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

  • Western Russia, appearing in the Komi Republic and the Arkhangelsk Oblast.

  • Southeastern Russia, throughout areas surrounding Lake Baikal, specifically northern Buryatia, northern and southeastern Irkutsk Oblast, and southwestern areas of the Sakha Republic. 

  • Northern Russia, throughout most coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Kazakhstan, throughout the North Kazakhstan Region. 

  • Eastern Russia, in southern areas of the Sakha Republic. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2025 expects widespread exceptional deficits to emerge in western Russia, near the city of Perm and in the Komi Republic. Exceptional deficits will similarly cover much of the southern areas of the Sakha Republic east of Lake Baikal, southern Irkutsk Oblast, and near the Olenyoksky District. Further south, isolated pockets of exceptional deficits will occur in northern Kazakhstan, in the Kostanay Region. Severe to exceptional surpluses will emerge in south-central areas of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, as well as near the Russian cities of Chelyabinsk and Omsk. These surpluses continue south into central, northern, and northwestern Kazakhstan. Regions of southeastern Kazakhstan, near Lake Balkhash, will also observe widespread surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity.

From February through April 2025, widespread exceptional deficits are expected to linger in areas near the city of Perm and in the Komi Republic, as well as the Sverdlovsk Oblast, Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Exceptional deficits are also expected to persist in Buryatia, Zabaykalsky Krai, and the Irkutsk Oblast. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are forecast to remain in the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, southern Sakha Republic, and northern Kazakhstan.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – expects small pockets of surplus to linger in northern Kazakhstan and in southwestern and eastern Russia. Severe to exceptional deficits may continue in areas east of Lake Baikal, southern Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, and regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Russia’s wheat harvest is expected to be 83 million tons in 2024 – a decrease from 92.8 million in 2023 due to drought-related crop loss. As a result, farmers plan to reduce wheat production in favor of more resilient crops, such as peas, lentils, and sunflowers. The reduction is expected to impact global wheat prices as well as inflation in major importers like Egypt. Farmers have reduced winter wheat sowing by up to 30% as they pivot to alternative crops.

In Krasnodar Krai, farmers are struggling amidst drought conditions that have disrupted autumn sowing. The drought has worsened soil moisture levels and delayed sowing schedules. The drought has negatively affected seedling quality as younger plants struggle to flourish. To alleviate the impact, farmers are being advised to invest in high-quality mineral fertilizers. In Krasnodar Krai, over 1.6 million hectares contain wheat, while over 200 thousand hectares contain barley, rapeseed, and triticale combined.

The Kharkiv region continues to face a prolonged drought, as reported by the local hydrometeorological center. Soil drought is affecting central, southern, and northwestern areas, as minimal to no rainfall has appeared for months. This has severely impacted agriculture, delaying the development of winter grain crops by 3-4 weeks longer than usual. Additionally, experts noted that the average daily temperature dropped below +5°C on November 3, which is nearly a week later than usual based on historical data.

The recent flooding in Kazakhstan is considered to be the country’s worst natural disaster in 80 years. The floods were caused by melting snow and affected ten regions, in which over 75,000 people were rescued, including 18,000 children and over 69,000 farm animals. Thousands of homes and buildings were damaged, as well as infrastructure such as bridges and roads. Additionally, experts expect Kazakhstan's GDP to decrease by 1.3 percent by 2060 as a result of damage caused by floods.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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