East Asia: Deficits continue in NW, S China

East Asia: dEFICITS CONTINUE IN nw, s cHINA

26 November 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in July 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern and southern regions of China, while isolated surplus anomalies will continue in western and northeastern areas of the country. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Western China, in northern areas of the Ngari Prefecture in Tibet. 

  • Eastern coastal regions of China in the Shandong Peninsula. 

  • Northern China, in western regions of Inner Mongolia near the Ejin Banner.  

  • Northeastern China, throughout the Hinggan League region of Inner Mongolia.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Northwestern China, in southern Xinjiang, as well as and western Gansu.

  • Westernmost China, in western regions of Tibet. 

  • Eastern to central China, throughout much of the Yangtze River Basin. 

  • Northeastern China, in the Hulunbuir region of Inner Mongolia. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in west-central areas of the Yangtze River Basin, as well as some regions of central Xinjiang and western Gansu. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficits will also appear in western Inner Mongolia. Northern and southeastern areas of Tibet can anticipate exceptional surplus, as well as some instances of transitional conditions. These deficits continue into western Qinghai. In northeastern China, severe to extreme surplus is expected along the Yellow and Haihe rivers and throughout the Shandong Peninsula. Southern Taiwan can expect exceptional surplus to cover most of its southern regions. 

From February through April 2025, a mixture of exceptional surplus and transitional conditions are expected to persist in northern and southeastern Tibet. Small regions of western Tibet, in the westernmost areas of the Ngari Prefecture, can anticipate exceptional deficits to continue. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to continue in northeastern China along the Yellow and Haihe rivers. Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in eastern Inner Mongolia and western Heilongjiang. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to occur in the Yangtze River Basin, near the city of Chongqing. 

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – anticipates that exceptional surpluses in northern and southeastern Tibet will dissipate. Moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern Tibet and into southwestern Qinghai. Isolated pockets of severe to extreme deficits may continue in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Yangtze River is currently facing an increasingly problematic drought crisis as severe water shortages impact several of its areas. Water levels in key regions, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake, have fallen below “extreme” dry levels, which has disrupted ecosystems, water resources, and navigability. Despite an increased average annual rainfall in China, extreme weather has persisted, with prolonged dry spells followed by sudden heavy rains. Over 50,000 reservoirs along the Yangtze have worsened drought issues by altering the river's natural flow. Experts anticipate that climate change will intensify extreme weather in the Yangtze River Basin over the next 50 years. 

Sichuan and Chongqing recently launched a joint effort to collect germplasm resources of high-temperature and drought-resilent soybeans. The specific type of soybeans, called “October Yellow,” are resistant to dry conditions and have successfully withstood the heat and drought of the current summer. Led by the Chongqing Academy of Agricultural Sciences, teams from various agricultural institutions in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Hubei are targeting 300 germplasm samples from high-yield plants grown in drought-stricken areas. 

The Yangtze River is currently facing an increasingly problematic drought crisis as severe water shortages impact several of its areas. Water levels in key regions, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake, have fallen below “extreme” dry levels, which has disrupted ecosystems, water resources, and navigability. Despite an increased average annual rainfall in China, extreme weather has persisted, with prolonged dry spells followed by sudden heavy rains. Over 50,000 reservoirs along the Yangtze have worsened drought issues by altering the river's natural flow. Experts anticipate that climate change will intensify extreme weather in the Yangtze River Basin over the next 50 years. 

Sichuan and Chongqing recently launched a joint effort to collect germplasm resources of high-temperature and drought-resilent soybeans. The specific type of soybeans, called “October Yellow,” are resistant to dry conditions and have successfully withstood the heat and drought of the current summer. Led by the Chongqing Academy of Agricultural Sciences, teams from various agricultural institutions in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Hubei are targeting 300 germplasm samples from high-yield plants grown in drought-stricken areas. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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