Middle East: Deficits to continue in S Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman

26 November 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in July 2025 indicates that pockets of exceptional deficit will occur in southern regions of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman, as well as in isolated areas of Iran and Turkey. Small regions of southwestern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen will experience severe to extreme surplus.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

West-central and southern Saudi Arabia, near the city of Madinah and in southern portions of the Al Ahsa and Al Udeid regions.
Yemen, widespread throughout central and eastern regions of the country, which continue into southern and central Oman.
Iran, within the Sistan and Baluchestan and Isfahan provinces.
Western coastal regions of Turkey, along the majority of its Aegean coast.

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in:

Southwestern coastal regions of Saudi Arabia’s Aseer Province.
Western coastal regions of Yemen in the Al Hudaydah Governorate.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2025 predicts that exceptional deficits in Saudi Arabia will mostly dissipate, but persist in southern Yemen and in much of Oman. Some southern portions of Saudi Arabia’s Al Udeid region will observe exceptional deficits. A mixture of transitional conditions and moderate to severe surplus are anticipated in southwestern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen.

From February through April 2025, deficits in Oman are expected to significantly decrease in size, though will still remain in coastal regions of the country. Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in southwestern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – indicates that near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits will continue to cover most of the Middle East. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue along Oman’s coast. Surplus in southwestern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen are expected to diminish.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Turkish airstrikes recently struck northeastern Syria, which cut access to electricity and water for over one million people. The attacks come as drought already plagues the region, worsening the current scarcity of water. As water reserves were already low, similar attacks which occurred in October 2023 destroyed electricity infrastructure and cut off power to the region’s primary water station. The attacks have added to the humanitarian crisis in a region reeling from a years-long civil war and four years of extreme drought exacerbated by climate change.

A new report by the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) found that one in two families in Iraq were forced to cultivate less land or significantly ration water usage during the 2024 farming season due to drought. 709 Iraqis were surveyed across five governorates to better understand how climate change affects agriculture and income, as well as the ability to recover from years of conflict and economic instability. Among the displaced households surveyed, 59 percent reported having to reduce their food expenditure. Additionally, three in four households reported community tensions over competition for water supplies.

Yemen’s 2024 rainy season brought unprecedented rainfall and severe flooding to the country, further worsening its humanitarian crisis. More than 655,000 people were affected, as 240 deaths were reported, 635 injuries, and 500,000 residents displaced. The floods destroyed thousands of homes and infrastructure as well as water sources and agricultural lands. Power outages in Marib complicated healthcare and water sources were contaminated by cholera, which potentially caused over 186,000 cases and 680 deaths. 126 health facilities were damaged, as were 99,000 hectares of farmland and 279,000 livestock.

The Saudi Arabian government recently referred to global land degradation as “a threat to human life,” with officials calling for urgent action. According to the country’s deputy environment minister, neglect of the land is “wiping trillions of dollars from global economies, hampering agricultural production, disrupting water supplies, threatening children with poor nutrition, and destroying vital ecosystems.” Officials plan to bring attention to the effect of land degradation at the upcoming UN convention on combating desertification (CCD).

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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