Central Asia & Russia: Surplus continues in SW Russia, N Kazakhstan

Central Asia & Russia: Surplus continues in SW Russia, N KAzakhstan

24 September 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in May 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will continue in portions of southwestern Russia and Kazakhstan. Northern and eastern Russia will observe continuing exceptional deficits. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Northwestern Russia, in the northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and in eastern regions of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

  • Eastern Russia, in central to northern regions of Buryatia and Zabaykalsky Krai, as well as central to southern regions of Irkutsk Oblast.  

  • Northern Russia, in coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. 

  • Southeastern Russia, in areas surrounding Lake Baikal, specifically in northern Buryatia, southeastern and northern Irkutsk Oblast, and southwestern regions of the Sakha Republic. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Southwestern Russia, throughout the Republic of Bashkortostan and in regions near the cities of Kazan, Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk, and Tyumen. These surpluses continue south into northern Kazakhstan, spreading across most of the Aqtobe, Qostanay, Aqmola, and North Kazakhstan regions. 

  • Southern Russia, in the southern regions of the Novosibirsk Oblast. 

Transitional conditions are forecast in: 

  • Northern Russia, in coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2024 indicates that extreme to exceptional surplus will endure in southwestern Russia, as well as most of northwestern, northern, and southeastern Kazakhstan. Surpluses of extreme to exceptional intensity will also persist in regions near the city of Novosibirsk. Exceptional deficits will continue east of Lake Baikal, in central Buryatia and along northern coastal regions of Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. Pockets of extreme deficits will linger in the Tuva Republic. 

From December through February 2025, extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in southwestern Russia, northern to northwestern Kazakhstan, and portions of southern Kazakhstan. In southern Russia, extreme to exceptional surpluses may continue in areas near Omsk and Nobosibirsk. Exceptional deficits will persist east of Lake Baikal, in central Buryatia, as well as northern coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2025 – suggests that severe to extreme surpluses will continue in southwestern Russia and northern Kazakhstan. Exceptional deficits will continue in regions east of Lake Baikal and in northern coastal regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In a new study, researchers found a relation between the rise in Siberian wildfires and drought, insufficient rainfall, and lack of soil moisture caused by warming in the Arctic. Additionally, a potential for wildfires to suppress precipitation in the region was also discovered, which further exacerbates dry conditions and the risk of wildfire. As fires release aerosol particles into the air, these particles limit the ability of water vapors to form droplets, which typically become clouds and fall as rain. Scientists anticipate that this reduced precipitation could significantly diminish soil moisture by 2100, as well as lead to an increase in fire severity. 

Over 140 fires have been reported in large portions of Russia’s Rostov region – a key agricultural area responsible for producing 10% of the country’s grain. Earlier this year, early spring frosts and persistent drought have already decreased grain production by almost a third. As a result, the Ministry of Regional Policy declared a state of emergency in the Aksaysky and Neklinobsky districts, citing concern that “extreme fire danger remains.” 

According to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), estimated production in Kazakhstan’s wheat and barley growing regions has decreased by 10% due to intense rainfall. In a report released September 10th, FAS forecast wheat output in 2024 to 2025 to reach 14.2 million tonnes – a 1.6 million tonne decline of an assessment made less than a month prior, on August 20th. Barley production is also expected to be significantly lower, dropping 400,000 tonnes from a previous assessment, now projected at 3 million tonne crop yields. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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