Middle East: Widespread deficits continue throughout the Middle East

Middle East: Widespread deficits continue throughout the Middle East

24 September 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in May 2025 indicates that deficits of varying intensity will persist throughout most regions of the Middle East. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Central to southern Saudi Arabia, throughout the Al Ahsa, Riyadh, and Najran provinces. 

  • Yemen and Oman, widespread throughout both countries. 

  • Jordan, widespread throughout the country. These deficits continue throughout southern Syria and southern Israel, and into the Tabuk Province of northwestern Saudi Arabia. 

  • Iraq, throughout the Saladin Governorate in regions surrounding Therthar Lake. Exceptional deficits are also anticipated throughout most of central and east-central Iran. 

  • Western and northern Turkey, throughout western coastal areas of the Marmara and Aegean regions, as well as in regions along the coast of the Black Sea. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Southwestern coastal regions of Saudi Arabia, spread throughout areas near the cities of Abha, Jazan, and Jeddah. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in central Saudi Arabia, throughout the Riyadh province and in some portions of the Al Ahsa province. Exceptional deficits will endure in central to eastern Yemen and in southern and northern coastal regions of Oman. Iraq’s Dhi Qar Governorate is also expected to observe an emergence of exceptional deficit. In Syria, Jordan, and Israel, exceptional deficits are expected to diminish, as are similar anomalies in northern to central Iran. Southern and southeastern Iran can expect exceptional deficits to persist. Western and northern coastal regions of Turkey’s Marmara, Black Sea, and Aegean regions will observe continued deficits. 

From December through February 2025, most exceptional deficits are expected to diminish across most Middle Eastern countries. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in central Oman. Severe to extreme surpluses will continue in southwestern Saudi Arabia and in western Yemen. 

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2025 – anticipates near-normal conditions to continue throughout much of the Middle East. Severe to extreme surpluses may persist in southeastern Saudi Arabia. Exceptional deficits may continue in eastern coastal regions of Oman. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Water restrictions have been implemented in several Iranian cities as the region experiences an ongoing water shortage. Affected cities include Damavand, Khash, Genaveh, Harris, and Mahshahr. 200 villages in the Golestan Province have also been affected by water shortages, which have resorted to using tankers to preserve water supplies. The state news agency ILNA stated that 90% of the water used in the Golestan Province is used in agriculture. Some residents have begun protests in response to the water restrictions. 

Recent studies indicate that temperatures in northwestern Syria’s breadbasket region are projected to rise by 1°C by 2050. Additionally, the frequency of seasons averaging monthly temperatures above 30°C is also expected to increase. The area is expected to deteriorate due to drought and evaporation. In the past, the region experienced excessive cropping, deforestation, conflict-driven excessive use of natural resources, and greywater pollution.

In Turkey, giant sinkholes have started to appear in regions of the Konya province, otherwise known as the country’s breadbasket. "One of the major factors with sinkholes is climate change," says Arif Delikan, associate professor of Konya Technical University. Over 640 sinkholes have appeared in Konya, with over 600 of them appearing in the municipality of Karpinar. Delikan further stated that the region has been losing surface water due to drought since 2004, and that farmers have begun using groundwater to irrigate crops. Consequently, Delikan explained that water levels in Karapinar have been dropping by “by 10 to 20 meters per year.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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