South Asia: Widespread surplus continues throughout India

South Asia: Widespread surplus continues throughout India

24 September 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in May 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to endure throughout much of southern to central India. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Southern to central India, appearing in regions of southern Kerala, southwestern Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and southern Andhra Pradesh. These surpluses are expected to continue north into southern Chhattisgarh, as well as east along the Krishna River.

  • Western India, in coastal regions of the state of Gujarat. 

  • North-central India, widespread in eastern Rajasthan and throughout western portions of the Ganga Basin. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Southwestern Pakistan, appearing in areas of Balochistan surrounding Hanna Lake.  

  • Southwestern Afghanistan, across southern regions of the Chahar Burjak and Dishu districts. 

  • Northern and eastern India, in isolated pockets of northern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2024 indicates that surpluses will remain widespread throughout India, with severe to extreme surpluses appearing in eastern and southern Rajasthan, as well as eastern Madhya Pradesh and northern Chhattisgarh. The majority of western to southern Gujarat can expect moderate to severe surpluses. Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in southern Bangladesh, as well as isolated regions of central and southern Pakistan – primarily in central to southern regions of Balochistan. Exceptional deficits are expected to spread further across southwestern Pakistan, widespread throughout areas surrounding Hanna Lake. These deficits are expected to travel further north into much of Afghanistan’s Kandahar Province.

From December through February 2025, surpluses will continue across central and southern India. Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated to endure in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. Severe to exceptional transitional conditions will emerge in eastern coastal regions of Gujarat, as well as areas near the city of Surat. Isolated pockets of extreme surpluses are anticipated in central areas of Pakistan, as well as much of central Afghanistan.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2025, anticipates that surpluses will continue throughout central and southern India, with the most intense concentrations persisting across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Transitional conditions may continue throughout Gujarat. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
At least 33 deaths occurred in southern India in early September due to heavy monsoon rains and floods. The floods displaced over 4,000 people, moving them from their homes to 110 relief camps in Telangana. Lakes and streams overflowed, which cut off some communities in the Mahabubnagar and Nalgonda districts. The area worst affected is Vijayawada, which experienced its worst flooding in two decades. Nearly 40% of the city was flooded and 275,000 people were isolated in over a dozen residential areas. 

Even as several regions of India experience destructive flooding, about 10.7% of the country is enduring severe drought, including Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. As erratic weather continues, some kharif crops are in danger due to too much or too little rainfall. However, some regions are seeing beneficial results from monsoon rains, which raised acreage for crops to 110.46 million hectares – an increase from the four-year average of 109.6 million hectares. Crops that have been sown in these hectares include paddy, pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane, and cotton. 

Pakistani officials recently launched the Recharge Pakistan project, which aims to improve resilience towards flooding and climate change. Two years ago, Pakistan received over 190% of its normal rainfall in July and August, which submerged over one third of the country and impacted more than 33 million people. The project has a collective investment of $77.8 million USD, and is the largest investment to date at the national level in ecosystem-based adaptation efforts. “Pakistan has been witnessing devastating floods, widespread rains, and worsening heat waves which threaten our communities, economy, and infrastructure. The government … is committed to mitigating these climate-related risks, and building resilience against the adverse effects of climate change.” stated Romina Khurshid, Coordinator to the Prime Minister on Climate Change and Environmental Coordination.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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