Canada: Widespread deficits persist in Prairie Provinces

25 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in February 2025 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits will decrease in size throughout northern, eastern, and central provinces, but will remain within the Prairie Provinces, as well as in pockets of Nunavut.

Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in the following provinces:

Central British Columbia, persisting in areas surrounding Williston Lake and continuing further northeast into the Northern Rockies region and northeastern Alberta.
North-central Saskatchewan, throughout areas nearby Reindeer Lake, Lake Athabasca, and the town of La Ronge.
Northwest Territories, with deficits covering areas surrounding Great Bear Lake and along the Mackenzie River.
Nunavut, in western and southern areas of the Kivalliq Region.

Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in:

Western and southern Yukon, near the Kluane National Park and Reserve, as well as areas west of the Selkirk First Nation.
Nunavut, with the most intense anomalies appearing in north-central coastal regions of Baffin Island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2024 anticipates that most surpluses will vanish from most provinces, though deficits of varying intensity will linger in the Prairie Provinces and in easternmost regions of Newfoundland and Labrador. Similar deficits are forecast in northeastern coastal regions of Newfoundland, near the Emily Harbour.

From September through November 2024, deficits are expected to dissipate in most eastern and central areas of Canada. Exceptional deficits are forecast to continue in the Prairie Provinces, as well as in western regions of Nunavut’s Kivalliq Region.

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – predicts that most provinces will continue to observe near-normal to abnormal anomalies, though pockets of deficit may persist in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, and western areas of Nunavut’s Kivalliq Region.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Central Canada is at risk for another warm and dry summer, heightening concern for a repeat of last year’s wildfire season. Last year, similar conditions spawned over 6,600 wildfires across Canada, which burned over 15 million hectares and led to mass air quality issues in Canada and the United States. Low levels of snowfall in an abnormally warm winter combined with widespread drought prompted officials to warn of another potentially “catastrophic” summer. Wildfires have already forced large-scale evacuations in British Columbia and Alberta earlier this spring. Over the next three months, temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across most of the country, with the exception of coastal regions of British Columbia.

Though temperatures are expected to increase, farmers in Western Canada saw average to above-average rainfall in many agricultural areas. LeRoy Newman, a farmer near Calgary, stated that though his 2023 crop was a “disaster,” this spring’s milder temperatures and increased rainfall have provided major relief. “It’s a win for everybody. Like, you don’t hear of the severe forest fires, you don’t hear of severe pasture problems — it’s a positive,” Newman said.

Though parts of Alberta saw relief from its prolonged drought, northern Alberta is still struggling. In the northwest, the Peace River region missed the significant precipitation that other regions saw. Local rancher Gary These reported continuing drought-related problems on his pasture. "We should be looking at mid-calf grasses, and most of it is probably ankle-high," he said. "We've caught a couple of showers so that it isn't bone-dry like it was, but we'll be lucky to keep everything together here." These also reported unfavorable levels of snowpack in the area. "If there's no water coming down the river to fill the reservoirs, it's going to be tough for everybody, not just the farmers."

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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