United States: Surplus emerges in southern states

25 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in February 2025 indicates that intense anomalies will resolve in most regions of the country, though some southern states will observe surpluses of varying intensity.

Severe to extreme surplus is expected in:

Eastern Texas, spreading through most northern areas of the Gulf Coastal Plains region. These surpluses continue east into most areas of northern Louisiana.
Alaska, with the most intense anomalies appearing within the Seward Peninsula.
Puerto Rico, with surpluses covering much of the island.

Moderate to extreme deficits are anticipated in:

Western Montana, in areas west of Flathead Lake.
Small, isolated regions of southeastern Colorado, which spread east into areas near Dodge City, Kansas.
Southern Texas, near the city of San Antonio.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2024 predicts that surplus in eastern Texas will spread into surrounding states, particularly in Arkansas and Louisiana. Surpluses of lesser intensity are expected to emerge in Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and Oklahoma, all being of moderate intensity. Surplus in southern California is expected to linger. Further north, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in northern Idaho and western Montana. In the northwest, the Upper Peninsula region of Michigan and eastern to northeastern coastal regions of Maine can expect similarly intense deficits.

From September through November 2024, most states should expect near-normal conditions to abnormal deficits to occur throughout most regions of the country. Intense surplus is anticipated in southern California, central Texas, northwestern Alaska, and throughout Puerto Rico. Isolated regions of western Montana will continue to experience exceptional deficits.

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – anticipates that most states will continue to observe mostly near-normal conditions to abnormal deficits, though intense surplus will continue across Puerto Rico.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A new analysis of NASA satellite data confirmed that record snowfall in the Southwest has not been enough to offset the region’s prolonged drought conditions. The data, collected over 20 years by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) series of satellites, showed that groundwater levels in the Great Basin have declined significantly, and that the underground water supply in the basin has fallen by 16.5 cubic miles. “In years like the 2022-23 winter, I expected that the record amount of snowfall would really help to replenish the groundwater supply,” Hall said. “But overall, the decline continued.” Hall cited the cause of the decline was from diversion of upstream water for households and agricultural needs, and that the populations which rely on Great Basin water supplies have grown by 6% to 18% since 2010. “As the population increases, so does water use.”

Regions of southern Florida saw flash floods following landfall of a tropical disturbance. As of June 13th, over 20 inches of rain fell, which delayed flights at two of the state’s largest airports and inhibited travel by car in several of the region’s lowest-lying streets. Vehicles were waterlogged and abandoned as roads were impassable. “There’s cars littered everywhere, on top of sidewalks, in the median, in the middle of the street, no lights on,” said Ted Rico, a local tow truck driver. “Just craziness, you know. Abandoned cars everywhere.”

In Mandeville, Louisiana, a nonprofit organization has received nearly $7 million in funds to train workers to flood-proof commercial and residential buildings in flood-prone areas. The program prioritizes elevation techniques that assists workers in lifting buildings by using hydraulic jacking machines, as well as installation of flood-proofing products and nature-based solutions to promote community safety.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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