Middle East: Deficits continue in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman

26 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in February 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will resolve in some portions of the Middle East, but will continue in portions of central Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas:

Throughout the majority of Yemen and western to central Oman.
Central Saudi Arabia, with pockets of severe to extreme anomalies expected near the city of Ridayh.
Iran, in isolated pockets within the Sistan and Baluchestan province.
Turkey, in northern coastal regions along the Black Sea and near the cities of Antalya and Isparta.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Southeastern Iran, with extreme to exceptional surpluses appearing within the Al Udeid region.
Western Yemen, with moderate anomalies spreading through western coastal regions of the Al Hudaydah Governorate.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2024 anticipates severe to extreme deficits to manifest in central Saudi Arabia, southeastern Iraq, and southwestern to northern coastal regions of Turkey. Exceptional deficits will resolve in most of Yemen, but will continue in southeastern coastal regions of the country, which spread further east into southern to eastern Oman. Similar deficits are expected in central to southeastern portions of Iran.

From September through November 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to expand throughout central Saudi Arabia and southeastern to central Iran. Isolated pockets of similar deficits are expected in southeastern Iraq and eastern Yemen, as well as in southern and northern coastal regions of Oman.

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – indicates that widespread exceptional deficits in Iran and Saudi Arabia will subside, becoming near-normal to abnormal deficits. Exceptional deficits are expected to remain in Yemen, appearing in southern coastal regions of the country, as well as in areas of western to central Oman.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Extreme heat caused at least 1,300 deaths during the hajj pilgrimage, an annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca. According to medical and security personnel, 307 deaths were reported in Egypt alone, as well as another 118 missing, as temperatures rose past 124 degrees Fahrenheit. "It was so harsh and the people cannot bear that type of heat," said Wilayet Mustafa, a Pakistani pilgrim. Scientists stated that these deaths are expected to continue in the region as tens of millions of Muslims are expected to complete the pilgrimage in the coming decades. "The haj has been conducted in a certain way for more than 1,000 years now, and it's always been a hot climate," said scientific advisor Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, a scientific advisor at German institute Climate Analytics. "But ... the climate crisis is adding to the severity of the climate conditions.”

Drought conditions in Iran are causing land subsidence issues, threatening the city of Tehran, as well as over 800 other towns. The ground beneath Tehran sinks by roughly 9 inches every year, which is seven times more than what would be normally expected. Experts cite the country's acute water shortage as a factor. "This is a serious crisis affecting at least half of Iranian society," said Roozbeh Eskandari, an expert on hydraulic structures and dam construction. "Land subsidence resulting from unsustainable water consumption endangers the country's entire infrastructure, including pipelines, power lines and railroads," continued Eskandari. "There is an urgent need to find and correctly implement long-term solutions. Iranian authorities are relying on the fact there will eventually be sufficient rainfall to solve the dwindling water reservoir problem."

Regions of the Middle East are struggling with hydroelectric power supplies as the Euphrates and Tigris river basins become more and more dry. Benjamin Pohl, head of program climate diplomacy and security of German think tank Adelphi, stated that the area is “one of the fastest-drying regions on earth.” Ongoing drought caused by higher evaporation and lower precipitation, along with increased competition for scarce water resources, are causing these nations to struggle for stability in both agriculture and hydroelectricity production. Three hydropower dams built in Turkey at the head of these rivers have seen a 25% decrease in electricity generation capacity over that time, according to research by Dursun Yildiz, a Turkey-based hydropower expert and president of local NGO, the Hydropolitics Association. "The decline in electrical energy generation is in great correlation with the droughts in the region”, Yildiz writes. He says the diminishing precipitation and snowfall is linked to climate change, and will ultimately lead to a 30-40% decrease in Euphrates River flows by century's end.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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