Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus spreads throughout Maritime SE Asia

28 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following areas:

Indonesia, with the highest concentrations emerging in northern coastal regions of Sumatra, as well as Kalimantan and Sarawak.
Papua and Papua New Guinea, with anomalies occurring across most of the northern to central regions of both regions.

Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the following areas:

Widespread throughout Thailand, moving west into southern Myanmar.
Vietnam and Laos, throughout both countries.
Northern Philippines, throughout the island of Luzon.
Throughout most of the eastern portions of the Lesser Sunda Islands.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 indicates that surpluses across most of Maritime Southeast Asia will lessen in intensity, though will continue in western portions of Kalimantan and Sarawak. Further north, deficits are expected to intensify in the northern Philippines, primarily throughout the island of Lazon. Mainland Southeast Asia is expected to observe widespread moderate to severe deficits throughout Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia.

From June through August 2024, deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia are expected to lessen in intensity, though still persist. Deficits in the northern Philippines are expected to continue, but diminish slightly in severity. Surplus in north-central Papua New Guinea are expected to intensify into moderate anomalies.

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – expects much of Maritime Southeast Asia to observe intense surplus throughout most countries, especially in regions of central and southern Indonesia, as well as Papua and Papua New Guinea. Deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia are expected to resolve in some areas, becoming normal conditions and abnormal deficits. Moderate deficits are expected to linger in northern Laos.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Several deaths and roughly one thousand destroyed homes have been reported following a 6.9 magnitude earthquake hitting western Papua New Guinea. The quake struck around 6:20am on March 25th, near the town of Ambunti. East Sepik Governor Allan Bird wrote that the tremor damaged many areas of the province. “Sadly we have several casualties already,” he said. He added that authorities were still evaluating damages, but about 1,000 homes had so far been lost. “The flooding actually covers an area more than 800km (497 miles) long, and so there’s about maybe 60 or 70 villages involved all along the Sepik River,” continued Bird.

Intense rain has triggered flash floods and a landslide in the Indonesian island of Sumatra. The landslide reportedly killed at least 19 people and left 7 missing as it reached mountainside villages in the Pesisir Selatan. Responders recovered seven bodies in the village of Koto XI Tarusan, which was the worst hit, as well as two others in neighboring villages. 46,000 people reportedly fled to a temporary shelter, after nearly 20,000 houses were flooded up to the roof. "Relief efforts for the dead and missing were hampered by power outages, blocked roads covered in thick mud and debris," Yusrizal said.

Similarly destructive flooding recently hit the Indonesian island of Java. The village of Cibenda in the West Java Province was inundated just before midnight on March 24th, when many villagers were asleep. Rescuers in Indonesia recovered four bodies, while six others remain missing. Ten people were initially reported missing, and dozens of homes were damaged, forcing hundreds to seek refuge. "Until this morning, four bodies have been retrieved and six more are still being searched," said Meidi, head of the local disaster mitigation agency.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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