South Asia: Surplus expands throughout India

South Asia: Surplus expands throughout India

28 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that most exceptional deficits in Pakistan and Afghanistan will dissipate, though some regions are expected to experience lingering deficits. India is expected to observe widespread surplus throughout the country. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Throughout India, with the most intense anomalies occurring in southernmost coastal regions of the country, in the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Similarly intense anomalies are expected along the Ganges River. 

  • Sri Lanka, with the highest concentrations appearing in southwestern coastal regions of the country. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northern India, in the states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

  • Southern Afghanistan, within the Nimruz Province. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 anticipates mostly abnormal conditions in most areas of India, though some regions of Madhya Pradesh will experience isolated pockets of severe to extreme surplus. Southernmost coastal regions of India can anticipate similarly intense surplus, as well as eastern coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh. Some western coastal regions of Gujarat can anticipate intense transitional conditions to arise. 

From June through August 2024, exceptional deficit is expected to reappear in southern Afghanistan, which continues south into some regions of Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Surpluses in India are expected to expand in size, spreading throughout Gujarat and into central and eastern regions across the country. Southernmost regions of India can expect similarly intense surplus anomalies to continue. 

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – anticipates India to experience further expansion of surplus across the country. The most intense concentrations are expected to appear in southern and central states, and along the Ganges River. In Pakistan, exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in southern coastal regions of the country. Similarly intense deficits are forecast further north in central and eastern Afghanistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
According to a recent study, winter storms are appearing in northern India significantly later in the year compared to 70 years ago. This worsens the risk of destructive flooding, as well as reduces water supplies for millions of residents. The study, published in Weather and Climate Dynamics, stated that winter storms have increased in frequency by 60%, which reduces snowfall and increases the probability of heavy flooding. “This is a serious concern for the 750 million people in the Indus and upper Ganges basins who rely on these winter snows for water supplies,” said author Dr. Kieran Hunt. The loss of winter snow and the increasing late-season storms that heighten flood risks is a one-two punch that underscores the urgent need to respond to the far-reaching impacts of climate change in this sensitive region."

Over three quarters of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces are currently experiencing severe or catastrophic drought. The drought has been present for several years, displacing entire regions of the country, and leaving millions malnourished. One village in the Chakhansur district reports that only four of the original 40 families remain, and that some are not financially able to leave. “They all left for Iran because there is no water,” said one local. “Nobody was thinking that this water could dry up. It’s been two years like this.
35 deaths and 50 injuries were reported due to heavy rains that hit Pakistan the first weekend of March. Authorities stated that the rain also caused landslides and destroyed residences, particularly in northwestern regions. At least 30 rain-related deaths were reported in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, with many being women and children, according to a report made by the provincial disaster management authority.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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