East Asia: Exceptional deficits continue in N, NW China

28 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Western China, throughout southeastern regions of Xinjiang, western to central Gansu, and westernmost regions of Inner Mongolia.  

  • Northeastern China, in the eastern regions of southern Heilongjiang and southern Jilin.

  • Southwestern China, in Tibet, within the Ngari Prefecture. 

  • Southern China, in the Baoshan Prefecture of Yunnan. 

  • North Korea, throughout the Ryanggang, Chagggang, and North Hamgyong provinces.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southwestern China, in eastern regions of Tibet, near Namucuo Lake. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through May 2024 anticipates widespread surplus to emerge throughout Tibet. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in regions near the city of Beijing, as well as in northern Shaanxi. North Korea should also anticipate exceptional deficits to persist throughout the Chaggang, Ryanggang, and North Hamgyong provinces.

From June through August 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to appear in western China, occurring in southeastern regions of Xinjiang and western to central Gansu. Eastern regions of Tibet, near Namucuo Lake, can also anticipate moderate to extreme surpluses. 

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – anticipates most intense anomalies to dissipate further throughout the region. Small pockets of deficit may appear in southern regions of the Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture in Xinjiang.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Various regions of Yunnan are still facing drought, and have since last winter, according to the Ministry of Water Resources. Nearly 703,000 people in 13 cities and prefectures have been affected by the drought. On March 20th, an assistance group dispatched by the ministry assisted in reinforcing water supplies in affected areas. Funds were gathered to assist Yunnan in building 20 medium-sized reservoirs and 47 small reservoirs. Additionally, the ministry also arranged to replenish 27 irrigation districts, which is expected to restore over 66,667 hectares of irrigated area.

Officials have begun artificially increasing rainfall in the provinces of Yunnan and Sichuan, as both have reported drought of varying degrees since the beginning of this year. The lack of water is partially due to insufficient rainfall, as well as lack of proper water storage. The Ministry of Water Resources launched an emergency response for Yunnan and Sichuan provinces on March 22nd, which sent an assistance group to Yunnan Province to assist in drought relief work. Since March 19th, the Yunnan Province arranged for two aircrafts to begin rainfall enhancement operations in several regions, including Dali, Kunming, Chuxiong, and Pu'er. 

A study from Hunan Agricultural University found that rock sugar oranges become significantly more bitter if the crops experience prolonged drought. Specifically, if drought continues for more than 20 days during the fruit’s growth period, citric acid levels of the crops become significantly higher. The research team cited interest in studying the effects of drought on rock sugar orange crops to improve fruit quality.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.