Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Widespread deficits continue throughout Mexico

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Widespread deficits continue throughout Mexico

27 November 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits throughout much of Mexico, while Central America can anticipate lingering deficits to disappear, becoming near-normal conditions.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in:

  • Mexico, widespread throughout the country, spreading from the state of Sonora into Durango, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas.

  • Southwestern Guatemala, with severe to extreme deficits appearing in the Jutiapa Department and continuing east into western Honduras.

  • Belize, with moderate to severe deficits appearing throughout the country.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in Sonora, Durango, San Luis Potosi, and regions nearby Mexico City, but somewhat decrease in size. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in Belize, while deficits in western Honduras will decrease in size and severity. Additionally, some transitional conditions in coastal regions of Guerrero are expected to appear.

From February through April 2024, exceptional deficits in Mexico are expected to linger, particularly in Durango, regions north of Mexico City, and the Yucatan Peninsula, with some transitional conditions appearing in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero.

The forecast for the final months – May 2024 through July 2024 – anticipates near normal conditions throughout the region, though Nicauragua, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic are expected to observe moderate surpluses. Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Mexico is currently facing an intense shortage of potable water. Nearly 57% of Mexico’s population lacks access to a reliable and safe water source, and 105 of the 653 country’s aquifers in the country are being overused. In recent months, thousands of citizens have protested in the streets, citing the Mexican constitution which states that access to water is a human right. Mexico’s two leading presidential candidates, Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez, are aware of the water crisis. Gálvez discussed the issue at length in a recent Senate forum, and Sheinbaum stated the importance of water infrastructure projects during her term as Mexico City’s mayor. 

Latin America and the Caribbean have lost 22% of its fertile land due to several factors, including land degradation, drought, and climate change. The region has become one of the areas in the world where the most healthy and productive lands are being affected year after year, according to data compiled by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and captured up until 2022. “We’re a continent that still has an extractive economy, that doesn’t recognize the value of nature and the ecosystem services it provides us, a region in which there are no economic or negative consequences for affecting the soil,” stated deputy executive secretary of the UNCCD Andrea Meza. 

Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin and Utah found that conditions drier than usual contributed to a nearly 71% increase in migration from Central America to the United States. More than 323,000 migrants were observed, who moved from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. The data was gathered based on U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions between 2012 and 2018, along with weather data from the cities where migrants reported being from. In comparison to impacts of regional social and economic issues, University of Texas Professor Josh Busby stated that weather conditions were, “as, if not more important.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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