United States: Deficits continue in southern and upper midwest states

27 November 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates intense deficits to linger in Louisiana and New Mexico, as well as in the Upper Midwest and western regions of the Pacific Northwest. Existing surpluses in western states are expected to mostly resolve, but will continue in northwestern states and some regions of the Midwest.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following regions:

Louisiana, with the highest concentrations appearing near Concordia Parish and continuing into Wilkinson County in southwestern Mississippi.
Northern Minnesota, near the Red Lake and Leech Lake Reservations.
Northeastern Iowa, appearing throughout Allamakee County.
Central Indiana, throughout regions near Indianapolis.
Western coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in:

Nevada, widespread throughout most of the state.
Northwestern Wyoming, in areas throughout and nearby the Yellowstone National Park.
Vermont, widespread throughout the state. These surpluses continue throughout the majority of New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island.
Alaska, throughout the Seward Peninsula.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 anticipates extreme to exceptional surpluses in southern California to diminish, but continue in eastern regions of the state, as well as into Nevada, eastern Oregon, northwestern Wyoming, and western regions of Utah. Exceptional deficits are expected to linger in pockets of north-central and southern New Mexico, with similarly intense deficits appearing throughout Louisiana, northern Mississippi, and northern Alabama. These deficits also persist in northern South Carolina, throughout Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia. Further north, exceptional deficits will decrease in size, but persist in northern Minnesota and northeastern regions of Michigan. Outside of the Continental U.S., northern Alaska, particularly throughout the Seward Peninsula, can anticipate extreme to exceptional surplus throughout the region.

From February through April 2024, existing anomalies within contiguous states are expected to mostly dissipate. However, severe to extreme surpluses are expected to continue in Idaho, northwestern Wyoming, and in pockets throughout Montana. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to linger in northern Minnesota and in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, while moderate to severe deficits are anticipated throughout Iowa and central to southern Indiana.

The forecast for the final months – May 2024 through July 2024 – anticipates near-normal conditions throughout most of the country, with exceptional deficits continuing in northern Minnesota. Exceptional deficits in northeastern coastal regions of Michigan are expected to dissipate.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Small towns across the midwestern United States have long experienced water scarcity issues, which have become an urgent concern this year, as many face a multiyear drought. Experts suggest that the scarcity of water stems from rainfall patterns, climate change, and some towns’ lack of appropriate infrastructure. Officials of the city of Caney, Kansas state that it will run out of water by March 1, 2024 if lack of rainfall continues. The city’s school district has already moved to a four-day week in an effort to conserve water. Iowan towns are observing similarly intense shortages, as four wells in Belle Plaine, Iowa are producing only 40% of its usual amount of water. The U.S. Drought Monitor suggests that nearly the entire state of Iowa is in drought, with many regions experiencing extreme drought. Two counties in Iowa have documented their driest three-year periods on record, which go back at least to the 1890s – drier than the years of the Dust Bowl.

On November 14th, The National Climate Assessment was released, depicting climate change’s impacts down to a local level. The federal report detailed that the country was warming nearly 60% faster than the world as a whole, and that it affects many Americans’ security, health and livelihoods throughout the country, disproportionately affecting minority and Native American communities. The lower 48 states have warmed by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1970, and Alaska by 4.2 compared to the global average of 1.7. During extreme weather events, such as heat waves, drought, wildfire, and heavy downpours, these are when the heat increases are more noticeable. “We are seeing an acceleration of the impacts of climate change in the United States,” said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth.

As demand for tequila and mezcal grows, Californians have begun farming agave, a drought-resistant plant that is essential to the spirits’ production. Californian farmers have started to shift to more water-efficient crops and irrigation methods to avoid risk of drought-related crop death, as well as working around potential restrictions on groundwater use. Unlike most other crops, agave thrives on almost no water. One farmer, Leo Ortega, began recreationally growing blue agave plants, but has since shifted to agricultural production of the crop. “When we were watering them, they didn’t really grow much, and the ones that weren’t watered were actually growing better,” Ortega said, walking past rows of the succulents.

A traffic accident near the border of North Carolina and Tennessee sparked a wildfire on November 16th, which has spread across Haywood County, spanning 1,193 acres with no containment. The fire spread more than 1,000 acres in a day, while drought conditions continue to worsen in Western North Carolina. Spokesperson Meredith Hollowell stated that observed acreage of the fire may be inaccurate, as she said that acreage is based on an aerial mapping flight, and the number could potentially increase Saturday “if an infrared flight occurs and collects updated fire data.”

Prolonged drought is expected to cost nearly $20 billion in economic losses due to low water levels in the Mississippi River, Ohio River Valley, and the Missouri River Valley. Regional drought has caused shipping rates to reach record high levels, as well as raising the cost of exporting natural gas. “Rain across the Mississippi River Valley is really what we need, and in the Ohio River Valley, the Missouri River Valley,” said Matt Roe, a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers. The National Weather Service announced that little to no rain is expected, as well as a continuing drop in water levels in the Lower Mississippi River, until December at the earliest. Recently published research from the federal government and Princeton University finds that water levels have driven a significant decline in navigation conditions in recent decades along the Mississippi River, a primary engine of commerce in the United States.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags