South America: Widespread deficits continue in Brazil, Bolivarian Nations

South America: Widespread deficits continue in Brazil, Bolivarian Nations

27 November 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits to continue throughout much of Brazil and the Bolivarian Nations, as well as in some areas of the Guianas. Isolated surpluses are expected to occur in southern Brazil.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Western and central Brazil, throughout the majority of the state of Amazonas, and into regions of Rondonia, Para, and Mato Grosso.

  • Eastern Peru, in regions near the Mashco Piro and Made De Dios Reserves.

  • Bolivia, throughout the Beni Department and in regions northeast of the Silvestre Amazónica Manuripi National Reserve.

  • Northern Chile, throughout the Antofagasta Region.

  • West-central Venezuela, in areas near the Aguaro-Guariquito National Park.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southeastern Brazil, throughout the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

  • Western Argentina, in western regions of the San Juan Province.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 indicates that deficits throughout the continent will significantly decrease in severity and magnitude, though will continue in northeastern Colombia, eastern Peru, northwestern Venezuela, western Brazil, and northwestern Bolivia. Northern Chile can expect similarly intense deficits to continue. In the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue.

From February through April 2024, deficits in Brazil, Peru, and Colombia are expected to vanish, becoming mostly normal conditions. Deficits are expected to linger in southwestern Bolivia and northern Chile, but with lesser intensity. Moderate surplus is expected to expand in northern Argentina, southern Brazil, and eastern Colombia.

The forecast for the final months – May 2024 through July 2024 – anticipates mostly normal conditions to continue throughout the continent, with some deficits intensifying in western coastal regions of Peru into southwestern Bolivia and northeastern Argentina. Moderate surpluses in northern Argentina and the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul will linger but somewhat decrease in size. Further north, similar surpluses are expected in northernmost regions of Colombia and east-central regions of Venezuela. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to emerge in Suriname.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Areas in southern Brazil have endured over a week of severe thunderstorms, causing intensive damage and flash flooding throughout the region. Nearly 6,000 Brazilians have been displaced, while eight lives have been lost as a result of the flooding. These storms began on November 14th, which dropped nearly 4 inches of rain a day, including in the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. Over a foot of rainfall was estimated over the span of five days. This is the second largest flooding event in the history of Porto Alegre, just behind the city’s historic 1941 flood.

Lake Titicaca, South America’s largest freshwater lake, is currently experiencing significantly reduced water levels due to prolonged drought across the region. Juan Ramos, president of the Titicaca tourist transport association, reported that the lake’s water levels receded by 4 cm between 31 October and 10 November, with nearly 357,000 liters of water evaporating daily, based on a surface area of about 8,300 sq km. “This is the first time since I was born it has dried up like this,” says Rita Suaña, 48, one of the female leaders of the Uros, an ancestral people of the Altiplano who live on the waters of Lake Titicaca, on the border between Peru and Bolivia. “We used to fish here, but now you can’t do it any more. There used to be fish here, seaweed, seaweed for the birds of the lake, but now there’s nothing. Everything is dry, white and very sad.”

Rivers throughout the Amazon rainforest have fallen to their lowest levels on record as the area continues to experience prolonged drought. Last month, a region of the Negro River shrank to 12.7 meters, which is its lowest level in 120 years – when measurements began. In Lake Tefé, more than 150 dolphins were found dead due to the lake temperatures reaching over 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Additionally, drought has also cut communities off from receiving supplies and have forced indigenous groups to use contaminated water, causing widespread sickness. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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