Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense deficits in Mainland SE Asia to persist

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense deficits in Mainland SE Asia to persist

5 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 expects intense deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia to continue, with mostly normal conditions and moderate deficits occurring in the Pacific.

These areas should expect exceptional deficits:

  • Northern Thailand, throughout the Lamphun and Nakhon Sawan provinces. 

  • Eastern Laos, widespread throughout the Houaphanh district, as well as in central Vietnam, near the city of Đồng Hớ.

  • Western Myanmar, in the state of Rakhine. 

The following regions should anticipate moderate to severe deficits:

  • Laos, widespread throughout most of the country. 

  • Northern to central islands of the Philippines. 

  • Southern Papua and Papua New Guinea, with moderate deficits covering most of both areas’ southern regions.

  • Throughout most of Myanmar. 

Isolated instances of mild to moderate surpluses are expected in the following regions: 

  • Eastern coastal regions of Peninsular Malaysia.

  • North-central regions of the Indonesian island of Sumatra. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in central Thailand and in regions along the borders of Laos and Vietnam to persist, along with moderate to severe deficits continuing in central Laos and northern to central Vietnam. Most Indonesian islands are expected to experience continued normal conditions with small areas of mild deficits. However, moderate to severe deficits are expected to intensify in Papua and Papua New Guinea. 

From November 2023 through January 2024, anticipates severe to exceptional deficits to arise in southeastern regions of Papua New Guinea, while the remaining areas in the country, as well as Papua, to experience continued moderate to severe deficits. Normal conditions and isolated instances of mild deficits and surplus are expected to continue in most of the Indonesian islands, though the Philippines should anticipate widespread moderate to severe deficits throughout the majority of the region. Intense deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia are expected to dissipate. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 –  anticipates exceptional deficits to linger in southernmost regions of Papua and Papua New Guinea, while disappearing in the rest of both regions. Moderate deficits are expected to linger in the Philippines, while deficits are expected to arise in northeastern Kalimantan. Moderate surpluses are expected to arise in western Kalimantan, eastern Sumatra, and central Java.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Prolonged drought in Thailand has damaged the country’s rice crops, causing prices of wholesale rice to increase, according to the country’s Ministry of Commerce. As of August 4th, the price of jasmine rice was approximately $422 to $453 per tonne, while glutinous rice and Pathum Thani fragrant rice was nearly $414 and $338, respectively. The Rice Department of the Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives estimated production this year to total at 32.35 million tonnes, which is a 5.6% decrease from last year’s production of 34.3 million tonnes. 

Intense heat waves in Vietnam caused severe power shortages and cost the country nearly $1.4 billion, according to a recent report from the World Bank. Blackouts affected households and businesses, some of which are factories for some of the world’s top companies, such as Samsung and Apple. Businesses in northern Vietnam reported estimates of 10% of revenue due to the blackouts. The heat and drought have dried up reservoirs used for hydroelectric power, which generates nearly 50% of the country’s electricity supply. 

Additionally, eight fatalities have been reported in northern Vietnam due to flash floods and landslides. These events follow months of intense drought, heat waves, and sudden floods, and since the beginning of August, hundreds of homes have been destroyed, as well as crops. Landslides also affected central Vietnam, where three policemen and one civilian were killed as a police station was hit with a recent landslide. The Central Highlands and southern Vietnam have seen nearly 5 to 10 percent more rainfall than average since May.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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