South Asia: Deficits in eastern regions to intensify

South Asia: Deficits in eastern regions to intensify

5 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 anticipates that eastern regions of South Asia will observe exceptional deficits, while small areas of severe to extreme surplus will arise in western and southern regions. 

The following countries should expect extreme to exceptional deficits:

  • Eastern India, near the Son River and in surrounding areas, re-emerging north in central Nepal, in the Narayani Zone. 

  • Northern India, in the state of Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. 

  • Southern Bangladesh, throughout the Khulna Division and spreading further east into the Division of Chittagong and the eastern Indian state of Mizoram. 

  • Western Pakistan, in northwestern regions of the Balochistan province. 

Extreme to exceptional surplus is anticipated in: 

  • Western and south-central India, appearing in coastal regions throughout the state of Gujarat, as well as southern portions of the state of Rajasthan.

Northern India, in western regions of the Jammu and Kashmir provinces.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits to emerge in eastern Nepal, near the city of Kathmandu. Previous deficits in eastern India and Bangladesh are expected to mostly diminish, though continuing in southern Bangladesh and parts of Mizoram. Exceptional deficits are also expected to emerge in western Pakistan, in eastern to central areas of the Balochistan province. Further north, moderate to severe surpluses are expected near the Pakistani city of Lahore, spreading further east into the Indian city of Amritsar. 

From November 2023 through January 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to appear in western India throughout the state of Gujarat and Rajasthan, along with small instances of transitional conditions. Extreme to exceptional deficits will continue in eastern Nepal, though similar previous deficits in eastern India and Bangladesh will dissipate, becoming normal conditions and mild deficits. However, deficits of severe intensity are expected throughout Bhutan. Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected to emerge in northern Pakistan, in northern regions of the Punjab province. Nearby, isolated pockets of exceptional deficits are expected nearby in northern India.  

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – most intense anomalies are expected to disappear, though small areas along the shared border of Nepal and eastern India may observe exceptional deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
An outbreak of dengue fever has killed more than 300 people in Bangladesh this year, primarily in the country’s capital, Dhaka. In order to treat the influx of patients, Bangladesh’s Health Ministry recently required major hospitals to increase their capacity. Dengue, also known as breakbone fever, is a viral infection that is transmitted from mosquitoes to people. Experts at the World Health Organization recently cited the country’s current weather events as catalysts for the spread of dengue to increase, as the virus multiplies faster at higher temperatures. India is expected to ban exports of sugar for the first time in seven years due to a low yield of cane crops – a result of intense drought. India's top cane districts have seen half of the average amount of rain this year, and its sugar production could potentially fall 3.3%, or 31.7 million tons.

Though India is the world's second-largest exporter of sugar and the largest consumer and producer, exports this season are at a comparably low 6.1 million tons in relation to 11.1 million of last year’s season. Sugarcane, corn, sorghum, and soybeans are among the list of crops negatively affected by the current climate, which is Earth’s hottest summer on record. 

More than 100,000 people have been evacuated from Pakistan’s Punjab province due to destructive floods in the past three weeks. Once the Sutlej River began to overflow, rescue operations were dispatched to several affected districts, particularly the Bahawalpur and Kasur districts. Smaller scale evacuations began in July after water from the Ravi River was diverted from India to Pakistan. Later rains also flooded the Sutlej River, which prompted previous evacuations.

Heavy rains from monsoons have caused floods and landslides in the Himalayan region of India. Over 40 casualties related to these events have been reported. In the northern Himalayan states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, waters washed away cars, destroyed buildings and bridges. A recent cloudburst in Himachal Pradesh killed nine people, and 12 landslide related deaths were reported in Shimla.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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