East Asia: Exceptional deficits intensify in N China

East Asia: Exceptional deficits intensify in N China

5 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 anticipates intense deficits throughout western Inner Mongolia and into the Xinjiang province. Surpluses and some transitional conditions are expected near the provinces of Tibet and Qinghai. 

The following regions should expect extreme to exceptional deficits:

  • Northern China, spanning throughout western Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and eastern Xinjiang provinces. Further east, northwestern Liaoning can expect similar deficits. 

  • Southern China, throughout northern portions of Yunnan and into southern Sichuan.

  • Throughout the island of Hainan. 

  • Northern Japan, in the eastern regions of Hokkaido. 

Moderate to severe surplus is anticipated in: 

  • West-central China, in western Tibet, near Lake Bangongcuo.

  • Northeastern China, near the city of Zhalantun and into central regions of the Heilongjiang province. 

  • South Korea, spanning the South Chungcheong Province and most regions further south.

Transitional conditions are forecast in: 

  • West-central China, in western regions of Qinghai.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 expects most intense deficits in the south to subside, with surpluses in both western and eastern Tibet and Heilongjiang expected to continue. Similar surpluses are expected to emerge further north in southwestern Xinjiang. Exceptional deficits are expected to arise in regions along the borders of Mongolia and in northern areas of the Ejin Banner. 

From November 2023 through January 2024, most deficits in Inner Mongolia are expected to further dissipate, though still persisting in central Xinjiang. Surpluses are expected to continue in western Tibet and in Heilongjiang. The majority of the rest of the region can expect near normal conditions.

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – indicates that deficits in western China will continue to diminish, with some isolated anomalies occurring along the southwestern border of Tibet. Further north, surplus will continue in western Tibet, as well as in Heilongjiang.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Beijing is experiencing historic flooding, causing death, mass evacuations, and costly property damage. The heavy summer monsoon rains are hitting the Hebei province in particular – one of the country’s principal corn growing regions. Precipitation over the major Beijing area in July was reportedly over double the 20 year average of 150 mm. 175 mm of rain was recorded in the first week of August. For the Hebei province, which accounts for about 10% of China’s corn production, year-to-date precipitation is expected to be 11% above the 20-year average, which is boosted by vigorous rainfall seen previously in July.

Fatality reports from a mudslide which took place on August 12th in the northwestern city of Xian were increased to 21 fatalities and six missing individuals. The mudslides followed unusually high summer rainfall throughout many areas of the country. China Central Television, a state-owned national television broadcaster, had previously reported a total of 18 people as dead or missing, with two confirmed deaths. Footage released by the official Xinhua news agency showed destroyed trees and debris of the city piled along mudded roads, as well as intense damages to housing and infrastructure. 

On August 28th, officials representing the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, the Ministry of Emergency Management, and the China Meteorological Administration conducted a conference to discuss climate resilience and precautionary measures. This meeting was conducted to discuss preparations as Typhoon Saola and Haikui approached China. Rainfall was expected to affect northeastern, southeastern, and southwestern areas of China, with drought persisting in the northwest. The conference warned southern coastal regions to monitor the typhoons and perform evacuations as necessary, while advising northwestern China to ensure drinking water security.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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