ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List September 2023

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST September 2023

15 September 2023

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in June 2023 and running through May 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List September 15, 2023 (pdf).

United States:  Several western states are expected to endure intense surplus until November 2023 or longer, while some midwestern states are forecast to experience intense deficits until May 2024 or longer.

Canada: Most provinces are expected to observe exceptional deficits until February 2024 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Regions in northwestern Mexico are expected to endure exceptional deficits until May 2024 or longer.

South America:  Areas in northern Brazil and southern Bolivarian Nations are expected to observe exceptional deficits until May 2024 or longer.

Europe:  Some regions of southern Europe are expected to observe intense surplus until November 2023.

Africa: Exceptional deficits in northern Africa are expected to continue until November 2023.

Middle East: Exceptional deficits are expected to be widespread throughout Saudi Arabia until November 2023.

Central Asia and Russia: Regions of western and northwestern Russia are expected to endure intense deficit until February 2024 or longer.

South Asia: Most regions are expected to observe near normal conditions, though areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan are expected to endure exceptional deficits until November 2023.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Much of Maritime Southeast Asia is forecast to endure widespread deficits until November 2023.

East Asia: Areas in western China are expected to observe surpluses which expand in magnitude throughout the Tibetan Plateau until May 2024 or longer.

Australia & New Zealand:  Transitional conditions and surplus are expected to arise in eastern North Territory and western Queensland until November 2023 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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