Middle East: Transitional conditions to spread throughout Saudi Arabia, Yemen

27 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in December 2023 indicates widespread transitional conditions throughout much of the central Middle East, with anomalies of varying intensity appearing in pockets throughout the rest of the region.

Deficits are predicted to occur in:

Western Turkey, near the city of Mersin, moving northwest into areas near the cities of Aksaray and Ankara.
Lebanon, spanning most of the country.
Northwestern Saudi Arabia, near the city of Al Bad.
Southeastern Saudi Arabia, throughout the Al Udayd province, crossing over into the United Arab Emirates.

Intense transitional conditions are expected in:

Central Saudi Arabia, with the most intense anomalies occurring in southern regions of the Al-Ahsa area. These anomalies move across the country’s southern border and spread throughout Yemen.
South-central Oman, in southern coastal regions of the Dhofar Governatore, near Ash Shuwaymiyah.
Central to eastern Iran, along with exceptional deficits, which occur within the Yazd Province and spread into the South Khorasan Province.
Western Iraq, near the town of Rutba.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected in:

Syria, covering the majority of the country’s central regions and crossing its northern border into south-central Turkey.
Southwestern Iran, with the highest intensity surpluses along the coast of the Persian Gulf.
Northern Iraq, widespread throughout the Kirkuk Governorate and through the city of Sulaymaniyah.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2023 predicts transitional conditions in central Saudi Arabia to persist, which continue to spread through the majority of Yemen. The rest of Saudi Arabia is expected to experience normal conditions with scattered mild anomalies, though an isolated central area in the Al Udayd province is expected to endure exceptional deficits. Further north, exceptional surpluses are expected to linger in central Syria, northern Iraq, and southwestern Iran. In south-central Turkey, regions near the city of Gaziantep can anticipate exceptional deficits.

From July through September 2023, much of the existing transitional conditions in Yemen will disappear, instead appearing in central to south-central Saudi Arabia. Similarly intense transitional conditions are expected in central Syria and southwestern Iran. Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in northeastern Iran, Lebanon, Israel, and southwestern Turkey.

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2023 – transitional conditions in Saudi Arabia are expected to disappear, becoming exceptional deficits in south-central regions of the country. Similarly intense deficits are expected in southern Oman. In central Syria and northern Iraq, extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist, with small areas of extreme surplus appearing nearby in western Iraq.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On April 4th, Turkey approved Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani’s request for increased water flow from the Tigris River in an effort to alleviate Iraq’s acute water shortage. Ministry spokesman Khalid Shamal said Turkish officials were releasing 1,500 cubic meters per second, which doubles the previous amount requested. As Turkey is also experiencing drought, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey stated, “We realize the water scarcity in Iraq, but the precipitation in Turkey is at its lowest level in 62 years.” Despite the country’s current drought conditions, Turkey increased water flow to the Tigris for a month, to assist with Iraq’s water scarcity issues as much as possible.

Iranian officials reported two flood-related deaths in northern and western Iran on April 13th. According to Pirhossein Koulivand, head of Iran’s emergency services, one fatality was reported in the Qazvin province and the other in the province of Ilam. Iran’s meteorological department recently issued warnings of intense seasonal rain in many areas throughout the country, including its capital city Tehran.

Iran’s national budget for its current calendar year of March 2023 to March 2024 allocates a line of credit specifically for planting trees in an effort to combat drought and other complications stemming from climate change. Officials launched a campaign to plant one billion saplings over the next four years titled “Green Iran, Strong Iran,” during which experts expect the saplings to draw out carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. As only seven percent of Iran’s total area is covered with forests, the campaign is an effort to offset the country’s rank as the seventh highest carbon-producing country in the world.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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