South Asia: Intense surplus in Pakistan to persist

South Asia: Intense surplus in Pakistan to persist

27 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2023 anticipates intense surplus to continue in northern and western locations of South Asia, along with deficits in central and eastern regions of the area. 

Surplus is expected in the following regions:

  • Pakistan, spanning much of the country’s southern and central regions.

  • Northern and western India, in the states of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. 

  • Eastern Afghanistan, along its eastern border with Pakistan. 

Deficits are anticipated in the following areas: 

  • Much of India, throughout most of the area’s north-central regions, as well as further west near the city of Dwarka. 

  • Far east India, in southern regions of the state of Assam. 

  • Northwest Afghanistan, along its northeastern border shared with Turkmenistan.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2023 anticipates intense surplus to continue in Pakistan, which spreads further into nearby countries, including Afghanistan, Nepal, and throughout much of India. Southeastern regions of Pakistan along the coast of the Arabian Sea are also expected to experience exceptional transitional conditions. Far eastern India, near the state of Assam, can anticipate extreme deficits.

From July through September 2023, transitional conditions in Pakistan are expected to linger and expand in size, with exceptional surpluses also persisting. Much of India can expect mild deficits, with southern coastal regions of India in the state of Kerala experiencing extreme deficits, as well as in far eastern regions of the country, in the state of Assam.

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2023 – expects exceptional transitional conditions in southern Pakistan to spread further north, covering much of the country. Nearby in southeastern Afghanistan, severe to extreme surpluses are expected along the border shared with Pakistan. Surpluses of similar intensity are forecast to occur in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, with an isolated area of exceptional deficit appearing in central areas of the state of Rajasthan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
India’s first census of all water structures found 2.4 million bodies of water in the country. The census, conducted by the Union Ministry of Jal Shakti, geo-tagged each body of water, describing latitude and longitude of each pond, reservoir, tank, and check dam, all with relevant photographs. The survey found that 83 percent of the bodies of water are used for fisheries, irrigation, drinking water, and groundwater recharge. 

Skymet Weather recently announced that it anticipates lower than normal levels of monsoon rains in India. After four consecutive years of either normal or above-normal seasonal monsoon rains, this low estimate causes concern for the country’s agricultural sector, including the states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, which rely heavily on monsoon rains for crop production. Skymet Weather also estimates a 20 percent chance of drought in India due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential effects from El Nino. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet to release its forecast for the monsoon season, but it has predicted above-normal maximum temperatures and heatwaves in most parts of the country from April to June.

Food shortages in Pakistan continue into the dates of Ramadan as a result from the country’s recent historic flooding. Food prices continue to increase, with citizens reporting over 100% increases in the cost of flour. As flour is a staple in local cuisine, many have reported having to wait hours in line for free rations.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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