Central Asia & Russia: Surplus, transitional conditions continue in central Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Surplus, Transitional conditions continue in Central Russia

27 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2023 indicates major anomalies throughout the continent, with intense surplus and transitional conditions throughout much of its central and eastern regions, and major deficits occurring throughout its northwestern areas. 

Extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast in: 

  • Eastern Russia, throughout central and northern regions of the Sakha Republic, as well as areas east of the federal subject Zabaykalsky Krai. 

  • Central and northern Russia, in southern regions of the federal subject Krasnoyarsk Krai, as well as western coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District.

  • Southern Russia, throughout central Chita, continuing north into eastern Irkutsk Oblast. 

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in: 

  • Northwest Russia, with exceptional deficits near the settlement of Novy Port, as well as isolated areas in Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Southwestern Kazakhstan, with exceptional deficits near the Mangystau Province.

  • Central Uzbekistan, which spreads further south into northern Turkmenistan. 

  • Northeastern Russia, in coastal regions in northeastern Chukchi Autonomous Okrug.

Transitional conditions are anticipated in:

  • Eastern Russia, throughout the Evenkiysky District. Similarly intense anomalies can be found farther east in the Mirninskiy Ulus district of the Sakha Republic.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast throughout June predicts widespread exceptional surpluses in the Central Siberian Plateau, the majority of Russia’s Yenisei River Watershed, and throughout the Russian Far East. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist from Tyumen Oblast into areas near the city of Omsk. Pockets of similarly intense transitional conditions are expected to appear in southern Kazakhstan and central Kyrgyzstan.

From July through September 2023, transitional conditions within the central regions of the Central Siberian Plateau are expected to persist, with areas farther northeast experiencing lingering exceptional surplus. Coastal regions within the Narymsky District and the Tazovsky District can expect surpluses of similar intensity.

The forecast for the final months – October to December 2023 – predicts most intense anomalies throughout the region to dissipate, with exceptional deficits continuing near the settlement of Novy Port. Extreme surpluses are forecast in Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, as well as much of the Evenkiysky District.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

In April, St. Petersburg, Russia experienced near-record lows of rainfall, reporting 15 consecutive days of no precipitation. According to Hydrometeorological Center head Alexander Kolesov, the dry period was the fourth worst instance of continuous drought in the entire history of meteorological observations in the region. Of the historic droughts ranked higher in severity, two of which were 16 and 17 day dry periods, both of which were also recorded in April. Additionally, Kolesov stated that there has not been such a long dry period since 1965, when there was no rain in Leningrad for 22 days. 

As of April 26, the Desna River in the Russian Chernihiv region is reaching the peak of spring flooding. Experts anticipate flooding in the Chernihiv region to potentially be the most severe in a decade.  Locals reported that local paths, trees, beaches, and parking lots have been submerged, with some residents having to lay out wooden pallets in order to cross flooded areas. 

Nearby, south of the village of Makoshino, the water level continues to rise by 2 to 5 centimeters per day. These conditions are worsened by flooding of the lowered floodplain sections in the Koryukovsky, Nezhinsky, and Chernihiv regions. Flooding in the Dnieper River is expected to continue until April 30, of which begins a decrease in water levels of up to 10 centimeters per day. Currently, 29 residential buildings in 13 villages of Chernihiv and Koryukovsky districts remain flooded.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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