Europe: Water deficits throughout Continental Europe

27 February 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2023 indicates widespread deficits across Continental Europe with varying degrees of intensity, while the United Kingdom and Ireland are expected to experience pockets of mild to moderate anomalies.

Areas experiencing extreme to exceptional deficits include:

Central to southwestern France, throughout the Limousin and Auvergne regions, as well as northern areas of the Midi-Pyrénées region and into the city of Bordeaux.
Eastern Bulgaria, in regions along the coast of the Black Sea.
The Baltics, widespread throughout Latvia and Estonia.
Northeastern Spain, in the eastern coastal regions of Catalonia.
Central Sweden, primarily in Dalarna and southern Jamtland counties.

Moderate to severe deficits are expected in:

Southern Spain, with mild to moderate deficits throughout the southern Andalucia region.
Northern Germany, with the highest intensity deficits occurring near Hamburg and Stralsund.
Poland, with concentrated deficits near the city of Wroclaw, Bialy Bor, and along the border of Poland and Kaliningrad Oblast.
Eastern Slovakia, near the city of Kosice, with moderate deficits stretching further south into eastern Hungary.
Northern Italy, spreading from the western border of Piemonte to southern Emilia-Romagna, and central Toscana.
Southern Sweden, becoming exceptional in Halmstad.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in:

Southernmost Serbia, along its shared border with the northernmost area of Kosovo.
Throughout Croatia.
Northwestern France, near the city of Santiago de Compostela.
Northern Sweden, near the Kiruna Municipality.
Central areas of the United Kingdom, primarily western coastal regions of Cumbria.
Southwestern European Russia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2023 predicts severe to exceptional deficits in central France, central Sweden, and coastal areas of the Balkans. Pockets across northern Italy, northeastern Spain, and central Poland can expect deficits of similar intensity. Switzerland, Austria, eastern Hungary, eastern Slovakia, and Romania are expected to experience areas of moderate surplus. In the Arctic Norway, eastern Belarus, and northern Ukraine, severe to extreme surpluses are expected to emerge. In Ireland and the United Kingdom, most anomalies are expected to lessen in intensity into mild surpluses.

From May through July 2023, most of the exceptional deficits in Continental Europe are expected to subside to moderate to severe deficits, though exceptional deficits in the Baltics and central Sweden are expected to endure. Regions with a forecast of deficit include France, eastern Bulgaria, southern Ukraine, eastern Germany, northern Poland, Moldova, and pockets throughout northwestern Italy. Surpluses, primarily moderate, are expected to occur in Arctic Norway.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – anticipates moderate deficits widespread across Continental Europe, with intense deficits in central Sweden, France, and the Baltics. The United Kingdom and Ireland can anticipate mostly normal conditions, with mild deficits in northern U.K.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Experts from the National Drought Group have warned that England is one dry spell away from experiencing severe drought, much like the conditions observed last summer, which stifled production of crops such as cabbage and kale. Farmers are preparing to endure a difficult year for crop yields, as some farming areas are still plagued with lingering drought, and others only recently recovering. Due to the warning, supermarkets are rationing sales of produce such as tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, broccoli, and lettuce to brace for the lack of supplies. So far, February has been dry, with roughly 63% of England’s rivers reported to be below normal seasonal levels. Officials are beginning to plan ways to manage water resources, including emergency abstraction licenses for farmers who need to irrigate.

Italy is facing similar drought-related challenges as canals in Venice have run dry. Though Venice is typically more susceptible to floods, the city’s tides are unusually low, making it impossible for watercraft such as boats, gondolas, water taxis, and ambulances to navigate its canals. According to scientists and environmental experts, consistent weeks of dry winter weather have raised concerns that Italy could face another drought, as the Alps have received less than half of their normal snowfall, according to scientists and environmental groups. Many Italian rivers and lakes are suffering from severe lack of water, such as The Po, Italy's longest river, which has 61% less water than normal at this time of year.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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