Africa: Surpluses persist S of Sahel, deficits in Central and N Africa

28 February 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2023 indicates widespread anomalies of varying intensity spanning across its central and southern areas, including intense surpluses south of the Sahel.

Exceptional deficits are expected in:

Central to northern Mauritania, spreading across its western coast through regions near Fderik, into northern Mali and the majority of Algeria.
Central Morocco, throughout its western coastal regions and near the city of Beni-Mellal.
Southern Gabon, in regions southeast of the Ngounie River.
Southern regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, throughout areas northeast of the Kouilou River.
Southwestern Namibia, in western coastal areas of Karas.
Countries in the Horn of Africa, including Djibouti, Somaliland, and Somalia. These areas can anticipate pockets of extreme to exceptional deficit, with transitional conditions along Somaliland and Somalia’s borders.
Eastern coastal regions of Madagascar, near the city of Farafangana.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

Northeastern Central African Republic, in the Haute-Kotto prefecture.
Throughout the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
North-central Angola, near the town of Milunga.
Sierra Leone.

Severe to extreme surpluses are forecast in:

The shared borders of northern Nigeria and southern Niger.
Northeastern Niger, along its shared borders with Libya and Chad.
East-central Chad, spreading along its shared border with western Sudan.
Western Democratic Republic of Congo, near the city of Kinshasa.
West-central Tanzania, in regions near the Igombe River.
Throughout Lesotho, spreading through southeastern South Africa.
Central Madagascar, in areas north of the Mananantanana River, as well as northern areas of the country near Antsahakarany.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2023 predicts that a few areas of exceptional anomalies in northern Africa are expected to subside into mild to moderate deficits. Exceptional deficits in the Horn of Africa are expected to become transitional conditions. Much of the southern Sahel can expect intense surpluses to persist, throughout Burkina Faso and southern Sudan, becoming widespread throughout Chad. Other regions with a forecast of surplus include southeastern Angola, much of Zambia, central to southeastern Namibia, and central Tanzania. Pockets in eastern South Africa and Lesotho are expected to persist, though slightly downgraded to moderate surpluses.

From May through July 2023, exceptional deficits are expected to reappear in southeastern Libya, Egypt, and northern Sudan. Western Algeria can expect deficits of similar intensity to reemerge. Surpluses in the south Sahel will persist, particularly in northern Nigeria, Chad, and southwestern Sudan. Transitional conditions in the Horn of Africa are also expected to endure.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2023 – expects exceptional deficits to continue in southeastern Libya, southwestern Egypt, and western to central Algeria. Surpluses in the Sahel are expected to mostly diminish, with some surpluses remaining in eastern Chad. The rest of the continent can anticipate normal conditions to mild anomalies.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On February 22nd, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center stated that rainfall in the Horn of Africa is expected to be below-normal over the next three months, making the region’s current drought trends now worse than during its 2011 famine. About 1.3 million people, 80 percent women and children, have been displaced in Somalia due to the current drought, while close to 23 million people are thought to be highly food insecure in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya. The drought is the longest on record for Somalia, which has lasted almost three years and resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. Representatives from the UN have stated that deaths in the country are expected to surpass deaths caused by the area’s famine in 2011, during which more than 260,000 people died of starvation.

US First Lady Jill Biden arrived in Kenya on February 24th to begin a visit with the intention to call attention to the Horn of Africa’s drought. This is Biden's first trip to Africa as the first lady of the United States. For five days, Biden toured the area with UNICEF and the World Food Program, highlighting the area’s food and water scarcity worsened by the drought. “The one source of water here feeds 12 villages and each village has approximately a thousand to 1,200 people,” said Biden. Over 4.4 million people in Kenya are facing high levels of food insecurity, with the number projected to rise to 5.4 million in March, according to an analysis by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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