Middle East: Intense water deficits S of Riyadh

Middle East: Intense water deficits S of Riyadh

27 February 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2023 indicates widespread anomalies of varying intensity throughout much of the Middle East, with intense transitional conditions occurring in pockets throughout Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Areas expecting exceptional deficits include:

  • Saudi Arabia, primarily within its southern regions, spreading east into Al Udayd and the United Arab Emirates.

  • Eastern to central Yemen, throughout northeastern regions of the Hadhramaut Governorate, and southwest into the Shabwah Governorate.

  • Western Turkey, through Istanbul, moving southeast into the Taurus Mountains.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

  • Central Turkey, near the city of Ankara.

  • Much of northeastern Iran, throughout the Razavi Khorasan Province.

  • Much of Lebanon, Qatar, and Bahrain.

Deficits and transitional conditions are forecast in:

  • Central Saudi Arabia, throughout areas near the Al-Ahsa region, spreading south into western to central Yemen.

  • Central Iraq, west of Therthar Lake.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2023 indicates intense transitional conditions in Saudi Arabia to mostly subside, with some mild to moderate surplus appearing near the King Salman bin Abdulaziz Royal Natural Reserve, and mild transitional areas in its south-central region spreading into Yemen. Intense surpluses are expected to persist in central Syria and southwestern Iran, as are exceptional deficits in western Turkey.

From May through July 2023, much of the Middle East can expect mostly mild deficits, except for western Turkey and southeastern Saudi Arabia, which are expected to experience moderate to severe deficits. Deficits in the Riyadh Province will be moderate. Transitional conditions will persist in central Syria, and in pockets along the northern border of Yemen.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2023 – indicates that intense widespread deficits will emerge in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, with transitional conditions persisting in southeastern Iran and central Syria.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A magnitude 6.4 double earthquake hit Syria and Turkey on February 6th, causing over 47,000 deaths and further damage to local agriculture. The quakes caused a dam in northwestern Syria to collapse, destroying entire harvests across thousands of acres of nearby farmland. As a result of the devastating earthquake, wheat production in Syria is expected to plummet, as the quakes further worsened conditions brought on by the country’s persisting drought. Syria is headed into its third consecutive year of drought, due to rain reaching levels 75% to 95% lower than historical averages from October 2021 to May 2022 in the country’s northeastern regions. Previously, rains also failed in the winter of 2020. Heavy rain and snowfall occurred in northeastern Syria during the beginning of this month, though much more will be needed for adequate harvests. 

Over the last two decades, internal migration in Iran due to climate change-related issues has increased over ten fold. In 2021, an estimated 41,000 out of 88 million Iranians were reported to be displaced due to drought, sand and dust storms (SDSs), floods, natural disasters, and land degradation, and as many as 2,300 people migrated as a result of SDSs alone. Iran has also observed a decline in average annual precipitation, a rise in temperature, and water scarcity, further pushing citizens to relocate. These problems are expected to worsen in the coming years, as NASA expects living conditions in Iran to become extremely difficult by 2050.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.