Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continue in SE, NW Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continue in SE, NW Australia

23 February 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2023 indicates normal conditions to mild anomalies spread throughout the majority of central Australia, with pockets of intense surpluses scattered throughout, as well as small areas of intense deficits.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • New South Wales, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the central regions, reaching further sound into its shared border with Victoria. 

  • Victoria, covering much of its northern and central territories. 

  • Southwestern Western Australia, in a small pocket south of the Karroun Hill Nature Reserve. Northern sections of this region can anticipate severe surpluses, particularly throughout the Dampier Peninsula, moving further east into northwestern regions of the Northern Territory. 

  • Northeastern Queensland, appearing near the city of Mackay. The York Peninsula can expect mild to moderate surpluses throughout. 

  • Northern New Zealand, in the northernmost area of Northland, moving through Auckland and along the coast of the Bay of Plenty, moving south into Hawke’s Bay.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Coastal areas in the southwestern tip of Western Australia.

  • Southern Tasmania, in nearby coastal regions.

  • Southern New Zealand, covering much of Southland.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2023 indicates that surpluses in southeastern Australia will persist, including exceptional anomalies in New South Wales. Surpluses in northern New Zealand are expected to remain, as are intense deficits in southwestern New Zealand. Areas in eastern Tasmania are expected to experience mild to moderate surpluses. Similarly intense surpluses across northern areas of Western Australia, Northern Territory, and Queensland are expected to persist.

From May through July 2023, intense surpluses are expected to continue throughout southeastern Australia. Coastal regions in northwestern Western Australia can expect moderate surpluses to persist, with an isolated pocket of mild transitional conditions appearing near Fitzroy Crossing. Surpluses will continue to persist across northern regions of Western Australia, Northern Territory, and Queensland.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2023 – anticipates intense surpluses in southeastern Australia to linger, with pockets of exceptional deficits emerging in southwest Tasmania and near the town of Nhulunbury in the Northern Territory.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A survey released February 7th by Southern Cross University revealed the living conditions of the victims of the disastrous floods in New South Wales, nine months after the 2022 flooding. Over 50% of residents in the Northern Rivers region were living in dilapidated shells of flooded homes, 26% were displaced and living in trailers, sheds, or with friends and relatives, 18% were living in insecure housing such as tents or rentals, and 4% had moved away. Over one fifth of survey participants reported difficulties in finding available support, and nearly one third of insured participants reported being ineligible for a payout. The Insurance Council of Australia estimates the cost to be around AUD $5 billion in insurance damages, making it the most expensive disaster in Australia’s history. 

Nearby, New Zealand anticipates exorbitant rebuilding costs to repair damage done by Cyclone Gabrielle which hit the area in mid-February. Finance Minister Grant Robertson deemed it the biggest weather event this century, with “a billion dollar price tag." Local farmers lost livestock and entire harvests to flooding, and authorities are still determining insurance coverages, said the minister. Costs are expected to be comparable to those from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, totalling at NZ$13bn. 
On February 8th, the Great Northern Highway, Australia’s longest highway, reopened after record flooding in Western Australia cut off a major bridge. The flood left Derby inaccessible by road over the previous week, forcing residents to rely on supplies being delivered by air and barge. Earlier this year, one man reported taking a 3,000 mile detour after record flooding in Western Australia inundated all other routes back to his home. Beginning in Broome, Chris English drove over 4,828 kilometers across the Australian outback to his home. English's trip would be the equivalent of driving from Montana to Idaho while passing through North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Nevada.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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