Canada: Widespread deficits persist throughout provinces

23 February 2023

The 12-month forecast ending in October 2023 indicates widespread exceptional anomalies throughout the continent, with deficits spanning through central areas of several southern provinces.

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Central to eastern British Columbia, surrounding regions north and south of Williston Lake.
Central Saskatchewan, in southern areas of the Canadian Shield near Churchill River.
Central and northern Manitoba, in regions north of Lake Winnipeg and along the coast of Hudson Bay.
Western and eastern Ontario, around Sachigo Lake and along the coast of the Hudson Bay.
Pockets throughout Quebec, with the most intense anomalies appearing along the coast of Hudson Bay, near Lake Mistassini, throughout Ivujivik, and between the border of eastern Quebec and western Newfoundland.
Southern coastal regions of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Central and northern Northwest Territories, in areas southwest of Great Bear Lake and northwest of Inuvik.
Northern Yukon, in areas east of the Ivvavik National Park, spreading east into northern Northwest Territories.
Southeastern Nunavut, throughout and north of Southampton Island into the Inuit Owned Lands and throughout the majority of Baffin Island.

Severe to extreme deficits can be expected in:

Northwestern Ontario, throughout regions north of Big Trout Lake.
Central Alberta, throughout Lesser Slave Lake and Peace River.
Southeastern Yukon, south of the South Nahanni River, along its shared border with Northwest Territories.

Exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Northern Northwest Territories, north of Great Bear Lake and along northern coastal regions of the Amundsen Gulf.
Northwest Saskatchewan, in regions south of Lake Athabasca.
Southwest to central Yukon, north of Stewart River and north of Donjek River.
Northwest British Columbia, in the Stikine Region.
Northern Nunavut, along the region’s northern coast of the Northwest Passage.
Northern coastal areas of Banks Island, as well as throughout Melville and Prince Patrick Islands.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in eastern-central British Columbia and severe deficits throughout Alberta. Central Saskatchewan and central Manitoba, as well as the latter’s coastal areas along the Hudson Bay, can anticipate similarly intense deficits. Western Ontario can anticipate a combination of extreme to exceptional deficits, while coastal regions bordering the Hudson Bay in eastern Ontario can expect similar deficits. Quebec can expect widespread exceptional deficits, which spread further east into western Newfoundland. Similar deficits are forecast for southeastern Nunavut, more specifically throughout and north of Southampton Island into the Inuit Owned Lands and throughout the majority of Baffin Island. Intense surpluses are forecast to persist in southeastern Northwest Territories into northwest Saskatchewan, and along Nunavut’s northern coast of the Northwest Passage.

From May through July 2023, intense anomalies are expected to continue, with exceptional deficits occurring throughout central regions of the southern provinces, though slightly lessening in intensity in southern Quebec. Similar deficits are expected to endure throughout and north of Southampton Island into the Inuit Owned Lands, and throughout the majority of Baffin Island. Mild transitional conditions are expected to occur in northeastern Manitoba, with exceptional surpluses continuing throughout northern Nunavut and northwestern Saskatchewan.

The forecast for the final months –July through September 2023 – anticipates anomalies to lessen in severity, though intense deficits are still expected in northern and central Manitoba, southeastern Nunavut, and coastal areas of Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec along the Hudson Bay. Intense surpluses are expected to continue in northern Nunavut, Yukon, and Saskatchewan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Sunshine Coast Regional District lifted water conservation regulations on February 3rd that affected the Chapman Water System, which serves almost 90 percent of residents in the area. Following an uncharacteristically dry summer and a warm fall in British Columbia, officials implemented Stage 1 water regulations to prevent “imminent exhaustion” of the reservoir on May 1st of last year. Regulations prohibited operations at local pools and ice rinks, along with other businesses to ensure enough drinking water for nearby communities. The district reported that it will continue to monitor creek flows and snowpacks throughout the watershed, but data from the reservoir confirmed that the regulations could be lifted.

The first snowpack value report of the season details varying amounts for regions across the Prairie Provinces of Canada. In the Cypress Hills region of southwestern Saskatchewan, snowpack is expected to be as much as 50 percent above the average, though regions in south-central Alberta are predicted to experience drought, particularly areas north and east of the city of Medicine Hat. A preliminary assessment conducted back in October found areas along the Alberta boundary at risk of extreme drought. Based on mountain snowpacks, major river basins in southern Alberta are expected to be below average to average for March to September of this year.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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