ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List February 2023

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST february 2023

16 February 2023

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in November 2022 and running through October 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List February 16, 2023 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through April 2023 indicates severe to extreme surpluses to continue throughout western states of the Continental U.S., including central Nevada, central California, southeastern Idaho, and western Colorado.

Canada: Canada can expect exceptional deficits in eastern-central British Columbia and severe deficits throughout Alberta through April 2023. Central Saskatchewan and central Manitoba, as well as the latter’s coastal areas along the Hudson Bay, can anticipate similarly intense deficits.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through April 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits to emerge throughout western coastal regions of Mexico. Surpluses of severe to extreme intensity will linger throughout Central America.

South America: South America can anticipate exceptional deficits in eastern Argentina and the Pampas to subside throughout April 2023, turning into mostly moderate deficits in the eastern regions, Uruguay, and southern areas of Brazil.

Europe: The forecast through April 2023 predicts severe to exceptional deficits in central France, central Sweden, and coastal areas of the Balkans. Pockets across northern Italy, northeastern Spain, and central Poland can expect deficits of similar intensity. Switzerland, Austria, eastern Hungary, eastern Slovakia, and Romania are expected to experience areas of moderate surplus.

Africa: Africa’s forecast predicts that a few areas of exceptional anomalies in northern Africa are expected to subside into mild to moderate deficits through April 2023. Exceptional deficits in the Horn of Africa are expected to become transitional conditions.

Middle East: The forecast through April 2023 indicates intense transitional conditions in Saudi Arabia to mostly subside, with widespread deficits of varying intensity emerging in the Middle East through July 2023.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through April 2023 predicts widespread exceptional surpluses in much of Russia’s Yenisei River Watershed, Central Siberian Plateau, and pockets throughout the Russian Far East.

South Asia: Exceptional surpluses in Pakistan and western India are expected to persist through July 2023 or longer, though will become a combination of surplus and transitional conditions through July 2023 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through April 2023 indicates that exceptional surpluses along the border of Thailand and Cambodia will reemerge, with severe to extreme surpluses persisting throughout the rest of Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia.

East Asia: The forecast through April 2023 anticipates intense surpluses in northeast China, the Shandong Peninsula, North China Plain, western Tibet, and southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Transitional conditions can be anticipated in western Tibet throughout South Xinjiang with surplus of varying intensity occurring further northeast of Tibet.

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses in southeastern Australia are expected to persist through July 2023 or longer, including the consistent exceptional anomalies in New South Wales.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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