Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook February 2023

5 February 2023

OVERVIEW

Our February 2023 Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook indicates that several regions of the world will experience significantly warmer temperatures than normal, including eastern South America, New Zealand, central Mexico, Russia, and Southeast Asia. Notably cooler than normal temperatures are anticipated in south-central South America, with mildly cooler temperatures expected in central Africa and central Australia. Additionally, Mexico, central Africa, southern South America and northern Canada are forecast to experience moderately drier conditions than normal, with western Russia, the southeastern United States, and Southeast Asia experiencing moderately wetter conditions.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

Intense warm anomalies are expected throughout Russia, with the most intense occurring in its western and eastern regions. Exceptional widespread anomalies are expected to occur throughout the Northwestern Russia region, continuing across the Ural and into northern Siberia. Areas along the border of Siberian Russia and the Russian Far East can expect extreme warm anomalies. Similar anomalies continue further east into western territories of the Russian Far East, though lessening slightly in intensity into extreme anomalies. Temperatures intensify to exceptional anomalies in inland regions to the west of the Sea of Okhotsk and regions bordering northeastern China. Similar anomalies are anticipated along northern coastal regions of the Sakha Republic area of northeastern Russia. In Central Asia, Kazakhstan can anticipate widespread moderate anomalies with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan all forecast to experience normal conditions to mildly warmer temperatures.

Intense, widespread warm anomalies are expected to occur throughout Southeast Asia, with the most notable anomalies occurring in Myanmar and the islands of Indonesia, specifically across Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua. Anomalies of similar intensity continue east into east-central Papua New Guinea. Other anomalies, moderate to severely warmer than normal, are expected to occur throughout northern Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and southern regions of the Philippines.

In East Asia, warmer than average temperatures are expected to be widespread throughout central and northeastern China. These anomalies begin north of Myanmar, near Tibet, and continue into Qinghai and coastal regions of Shandong. Similar anomalies persist north into Liaoning and across the shared border of the city of Hegang and Russia. Much of Mongolia can expect moderately warmer temperatures, with eastern Mongolia expected to endure anomalies of severe intensity. Japan, North Korea, and South Korea can expect anomalies of lesser intensity, which are mostly moderate.

Severe to extreme warm anomalies are expected to appear throughout Mexico. Areas near the state of Guanajuato are expect to observe exceptionally warmer temperatures. Further north, areas within and around Durango and San Luis Potosi are expected to experience severely warmer than normal temperatures. These anomalies continue further south into Central America, appearing through Honduras and Nicaragua. Warmer temperature anomalies are expected to appear throughout the Caribbean, intensifying in Cuba and Jamaica to exceptionally warmer temperatures, with Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Costa Rica all experiencing moderately warm temperatures.

South Asia is expected to observe widespread warmer temperatures, mostly of moderate intensity. Similar anomalies are expected in southwestern India, along coastal regions of Goa and western Karnataka. Pakistan and Bangladesh can expect moderately warmer temperatures, with far eastern India experiencing severely warmer than normal temperatures, spread throughout Meghalaya, Manipur, and Nagaland.

Europe is expected to endure widespread warm anomalies of varying intensity, with exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures in southern coastal regions of Norway, northern areas of the United Kingdom, and throughout Denmark. Much of northern Continental Europe can anticipate severely warmer temperatures, namely central Norway, southern to central Sweden, Finland, the Baltics, Belarus, northern Poland, and northern Ukraine. Central areas of the United Kingdom can expect severely warmer than typical conditions, with all other European countries experiencing mild to moderate warm anomalies, except for Italy and the Balkans, which will experience mostly normal conditions.

The majority of Africa is expected to experience normal conditions and mild anomalies across the continent, with some areas experiencing moderately warmer temperatures. Affected areas include south-central regions of Mali, western Guinea, and Uganda. These anomalies continue throughout Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and near the shared borders of northeastern South Africa, Zimbabwe, and southern Mozambique. Northern coastal regions of Madagascar can anticipate temperatures of similar intensity with some isolated pockets of extreme anomalies. Extreme to exceptional anomalies can be expected to arc throughout Ivory Coast and southern Ghana along the Gulf of Guinea, into Equatorial Guinea and Republic of the Congo.

Much of Canada can expect normal temperatures with small pockets of mild to moderate warm anomalies appearing throughout Manitoba and Ontario. Southeast Ontario is expected to endure the highest concentrations of warm anomalies. Scattered instances of mild anomalies appear throughout the Arctic Archipelago, with mildly warmer temperatures appearing throughout Victoria and Ellesmere Island, and severe to extreme anomalies occurring in Inuvik. Mildly cooler conditions are expected to be widespread throughout Baffin Island.

Much of the eastern United States can expect to experience mild to moderate warm anomalies, with the exception of Florida; northern to central Florida can expect severe to extremely warmer than normal temperatures, with southern Florida to expect exceptionally warm temperatures.

Much of central Australia can expect mild to moderately cooler than normal temperatures, mainly throughout the regions of South Australia and southern regions of the Northern Territory. The Australian Capital Territory can also expect to experience moderately cooler temperatures. Exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures are anticipated in eastern coastal regions of the continent, specifically near Brisbane. In New Zealand, exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures are expected to occur throughout much of the country, with the most intense instances appearing along southern coastal areas of its Southland region.

Mostly mild anomalies to normal temperatures are expected throughout the Middle East, with scattered pockets of moderately warmer than normal temperatures to occur in south-central Saudi Arabia, western and eastern Yemen, and southern coastal regions of Iran.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

South Asia is expected to experience moderately drier conditions than normal, most notably in western to central Pakistan, eastern India, western Bangladesh, and western Nepal. Small areas of precipitation surpluses can be expected in southeastern India near southeastern coastal regions of the state of Tamil Nadu, which continue in northern areas of Sri Lanka.

Mild to moderately drier conditions are expected to occur all throughout the Middle East. Moderate anomalies are expected to occur in north-central Saudi Arabia, southeastern Iraq, and areas along the shared border of southern Saudi Arabia and northwestern Yemen. Further west, areas in southeastern Iran are expected to endure similarly dry conditions.

Much of Southeast Asia is expected to observe moderate, widespread surpluses throughout much of the region’s countries, including Vietnam, Laos, Papua New Guinea, Thailand, and the Philippines. However, intense deficits in precipitation are expected in many of the islands of Indonesia. Central Sumatra and Kalimantan are expected to see exceptionally drier conditions, with northwestern Java and Sulawesi experiencing moderately drier conditions.

East Asia is forecast to experience mild to moderate precipitation anomalies, with moderately drier conditions appearing throughout Tibet and Xinjiang, continuing throughout Mongolia and eastern Inner Mongolia. Coastal regions of eastern Shandong along the Yellow Sea can expect similar conditions, as can South Korea and much of Japan. Regions near Kanazawa can anticipate exceptionally drier conditions.

Southern countries in Continental Europe are expected to experience mild to moderately drier conditions. Moderately drier conditions are expected throughout Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and the Balkans. Further north, Norway, Finland, and northern Sweden can all anticipate mild to moderate precipitation surpluses, which stretch further east into the majority of European Russia. Northern coastal regions of the United Kingdom can expect surpluses of similar intensity. East of the Ural Mountains in Russia, central regions of Siberian Russia can expect moderately wetter conditions than normal, which spread further east into northern coastal regions of the Sakha Republic, appearing again in western coastal regions of Kamchatka Krai.

Central and southern regions of Canada are expected to experience normal precipitation conditions, though areas throughout the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Newfoundland provinces are expected to observe moderate to severe deficits in precipitation. Similar deficits are expected to continue north in Nunavut and the Arctic Archipelago, in Victoria Island, Baffin Island, and the Queen Elizabeth Islands. Eastern areas of Ellesmere Island are expected to experience severe to exceptionally drier conditions.

Precipitation in the United States is expected to be a mix of normal to mildly wetter than usual conditions, with a notable arc of moderate to severe precipitation surpluses beginning in eastern Texas and spanning across the southeastern states, including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. These conditions continue, moving north into the Carolinas.

Moderately drier conditions are expected throughout the majority of Mexico, with the most intense concentrations occurring in central regions of the country. These conditions appear further south, continuing in Nicaragua and Panama. In the Caribbean, the Dominican Republic and Haiti are expected to endure drier conditions than normal, mostly of moderate intensity.

South America is expected to observe a mixture of normal conditions and mostly mild precipitation anomalies. Moderately drier conditions are expected in eastern coastal regions of Brazil, in the states of Ceará and Pernambuco. Similarly dry conditions are expected in the department of La Guajira in Colombia, south-central Peru, and regions along the shared borders of southern Chile and southwestern Argentina. Moderately wetter conditions are forecast for southwestern Colombia, western Ecuador, and along coastal regions of the Guianas.

Much of Africa can expect normal conditions with mild anomalies throughout the continent. Moderately drier conditions can be expected to be widespread throughout Morocco and across central Africa, through Gabon, Cameroon, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia. Further south, southeastern Tanzania and northern South Africa can expect moderately wetter conditions.

Mild to moderately wetter conditions are forecast for Australia, specifically in northern Western Australia, north-central Northern Territory, and central regions of Queensland, though anomalies the latter being predominantly mild. Similarly mild precipitation anomalies are expected in southeastern Australia, Tasmania, and central New Zealand.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released February 2, 2023 which includes forecasts for February 2023 through October 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued January 25 through January 31, 2023.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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