South America: Widespread deficits expected to shrink

South America: Widespread deficits expected to shrink

22 November 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2023 indicates exceptional water deficits in northern Venezuela, western Brazil, Chile, western Bolivia, and southern Argentina. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in Peru; pockets of central Brazil; from Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil through Uruguay; and the Argentine Pampas.

Chile is expected to experience exceptional water deficits from La Serena through much of the nation’s southern extent. Exceptional deficits in Bolivia will reach from La Paz through Tarija. Deficits in the Pampas of Argentine will be moderate to extreme.

In western Brazil, the State of Amazonas will experience extreme to exceptional deficits in the west with pockets of similar intensity farther north in Alto Rio Negro and Medio Rio Negro. Deficits are also forecast in northeastern Mato Grosso, Brazil. In Peru, deficits will be moderate overall but more intense in the Isconahua Indigenous Reserve in the east near the Brazilian border and in the south near Cusco.

Areas with a forecast of surplus include central and northeastern Colombia, the Orinoco Delta, and small pockets in the northern Brazilian Amazon, eastern Brazil, central Bolivia, and coastal Argentina in Chubut Province and on the San Jorge Gulf.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2023 indicates that deficits will shrink considerably in Brazil and its northern neighbors while persisting in the southern half of the continent and many Pacific regions. Surpluses are forecast in the northern Brazilian Amazon, small pockets in far eastern Brazil, southern and eastern Venezuela, and central and northeastern Colombia. Western Brazil can expect some pockets of intense deficit, and moderate deficits are forecast in northern Mato Grosso. Deficits in northwestern Venezuela will remain intense. Deficits of varying intensity are expected from western Ecuador through Peru and western Bolivia. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional from Cusco (Peru) through La Paz and southwestern Bolivia. Some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in northern and far eastern Bolivia and eastern Paraguay. Exceptional deficits are predicted for southern Chile including the Alberto de Agostini National Park and in Tierra del Fuego, moderate to exceptional deficits in the Pampas of Argentina and Uruguay, and severe deficits in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

From February through April, near-normal conditions are expected overall. Deficits will persist primarily in northwestern Venezuela, central Chile, Tierra del Fuego, and the eastern Argentine Pampas. Areas with a forecast of surplus include pockets in the northern Brazilian Amazon, the Orinoco Delta, Colombia’s northeastern tip, central Bolivia, and coastal Chubut, Argentina.

In the final quarter - May to July – near-normal conditions are forecast with deficits in northern Chile, Tierra del Fuego, and pockets in Peru and Colombia. Areas of surplus include Chubut and northwestern Argentina. Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought continues to hinder production in major corn and soybean regions of Argentina. Though showers returned to Argentina, the heaviest rains tended to occur away from main farming areas. Argentina’s anticipated wheat production for the 2022-2023 season was lowered again in mid-November, after drought and late frosts in early spring previously lowered expected yields.

Regions in Brazil are facing similar agricultural challenges, with persistent drought affecting yields of corn crops. According to data from WeatherTrends360, this was the second driest second full week of November in over 30 years for regions planting full-season corn. 

Usually accounting for about 40-45% of total corn plantings, this year’s estimate is far below, at 23.6%.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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