Europe: Widespread water deficits to downgrade

23 November 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2023 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in Western Europe and many areas of Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the Baltic region.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in Spain from Bilbao through Madrid to Gibraltar. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast near Valencia. Deficits will be severe to exceptional in France’s southern half, northern Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, and Germany.

Deficits of generally lesser intensity are forecast in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, but anomalies will be intense from southeastern Poland into Slovakia and along the Black Sea Coast. Pockets of surplus are forecast in north-central Romania and western Slovenia.

In the Baltic region, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in Estonia, Latvia, and central and southern Sweden. Surpluses are forecast in northern Sweden, moderate deficits in southern and northeastern Finland, and mixed conditions in Norway. In the United Kingdom and Ireland, deficits are forecast in England, the Scottish Highlands, and County Cork Ireland. Surpluses are expected in Northern Ireland and the Lowlands of Scotland.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through January 2023 indicates that, though water deficits will shrink and downgrade, anomalies will continue throughout most of France, and in many regions of Spain, central and northern Italy, pockets in the Balkans, Netherlands through northern Germany, central and southern Sweden, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will emerge throughout Norway and persist in north-central Romania. Areas with a forecast of exceptional deficit include central France, Estonia, and Sweden.

From February through April, deficits will continue to shrink and moderate. However, deficits will remain especially widespread in France; increase in Hungary, Serbia, and southern Ukraine; and emerge in Moldova. Exceptional anomalies will persist in central Sweden near Ostersund. Surpluses will increase in Sweden’s northern half and in Norway and will emerge in a pocket of Finland on the Gulf of Bothnia. Surpluses are also forecast from Switzerland into Austria and widespread surpluses will emerge in western European Russia.

The forecast for the final months – May through July – indicates deficits in Portugal, France, Italy, Eastern Europe, the Balkans, Baltics, Finland, central Sweden, and some regions in Russia. Anomalies will be especially intense from southwestern Spain into Portugal, and in Estonia and central Sweden. Moderate surpluses are forecast in northern Sweden, Arctic Norway, and the northern U.K.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Spain and Italy, two of the world’s largest olive oil producers, have seen shortages as a result of Europe’s ongoing drought. Lack of substantial rainfall throughout the winter, spring, and summer has extended into the autumn, drying up soils. Italian and Spanish farmers traditionally expect rainfall in autumn and winter to restore the regions’ rivers, reservoirs, and lakes, though this year, they are expected to remain at very low levels.

Compared to the historical average, Spain has experienced a 63 percent drop in rainfall, with scientists predicting a 70 percent lack of sufficient rainfall in the current year. Central and western regions of Spain are expected to be hit the hardest, both of which are currently the most affected by the drought. The country is experiencing its third driest year since 1961.

Italy is experiencing similar issues pertaining to drought, with the National Research Council announcing that 30 percent of Italy is experiencing a “severe to extreme” drought, mostly in the north.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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